{
 "as_of": "2026-07-03",
 "anchor": {
  "era": "2010\u20132026",
  "events_per_yr": 42.6,
  "n_events_recent": 703,
  "n_events_total": 979,
  "decades_voting": [
   1970,
   1980,
   1990,
   2000,
   2010,
   2020
  ]
 },
 "tags": {
  "trade_war": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.3449,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.9148,
    1.8426
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0316,
   "n_recent": 22,
   "n_total": 30
  },
  "geopolitical": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 6.2329,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    5.0641,
    7.5021
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.1463,
   "n_recent": 70,
   "n_total": 118
  },
  "risk_off": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 7.4009,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    6.2869,
    8.5903
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.1737,
   "n_recent": 111,
   "n_total": 156
  },
  "market_structure": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.258,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.9319,
    1.6242
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0295,
   "n_recent": 35,
   "n_total": 41
  },
  "monetary_order": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 2.8549,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.3122,
    7.3995
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.067,
   "n_recent": 1,
   "n_total": 17
  },
  "fx_shock": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 8.3417,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    6.8373,
    9.97
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.1958,
   "n_recent": 76,
   "n_total": 138
  },
  "commodity": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 6.2081,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    4.8442,
    7.7114
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.1457,
   "n_recent": 50,
   "n_total": 87
  },
  "de_dollarization": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.2857,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.0645,
    0.6311
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0067,
   "n_recent": 2,
   "n_total": 4
  },
  "oil_supply": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 5.0917,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    3.7544,
    6.5963
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.1195,
   "n_recent": 34,
   "n_total": 69
  },
  "risk_on": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.8868,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    1.4373,
    2.3868
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0443,
   "n_recent": 42,
   "n_total": 55
  },
  "inflation": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 5.6856,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    3.9986,
    7.6156
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.1335,
   "n_recent": 26,
   "n_total": 56
  },
  "agriculture": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.9132,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    1.2604,
    2.677
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0449,
   "n_recent": 19,
   "n_total": 29
  },
  "recession": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.9335,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    1.0668,
    3.0073
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0454,
   "n_recent": 10,
   "n_total": 25
  },
  "banking_crisis": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 4.5338,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    3.3266,
    5.8944
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.1064,
   "n_recent": 33,
   "n_total": 76
  },
  "crypto_crash": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.1866,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.875,
    1.5373
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0279,
   "n_recent": 34,
   "n_total": 37
  },
  "sovereign": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 4.7224,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    3.8543,
    5.6635
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.1108,
   "n_recent": 73,
   "n_total": 104
  },
  "disaster": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.2282,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.7765,
    1.764
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0288,
   "n_recent": 16,
   "n_total": 25
  },
  "monetary_tightening": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 2.59,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    1.8906,
    3.3797
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0608,
   "n_recent": 32,
   "n_total": 45
  },
  "labor": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.3374,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.1632,
    0.5621
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0079,
   "n_recent": 7,
   "n_total": 9
  },
  "defense": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.2155,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.7685,
    1.7457
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0285,
   "n_recent": 16,
   "n_total": 25
  },
  "oil_glut": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.6142,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.3131,
    0.9964
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0144,
   "n_recent": 8,
   "n_total": 13
  },
  "china_growth": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 2.5597,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    2.0952,
    3.0628
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0601,
   "n_recent": 75,
   "n_total": 87
  },
  "energy": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.4869,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    1.1158,
    1.9017
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0349,
   "n_recent": 38,
   "n_total": 50
  },
  "tech_ai_bear": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.8595,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.5516,
    1.2229
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0202,
   "n_recent": 17,
   "n_total": 25
  },
  "vol_spike": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.7371,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.4856,
    1.0314
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0173,
   "n_recent": 19,
   "n_total": 24
  },
  "deflation": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.3895,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.1884,
    0.6489
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0091,
   "n_recent": 7,
   "n_total": 10
  },
  "monetary_easing": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.1779,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.7934,
    1.6245
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0276,
   "n_recent": 21,
   "n_total": 32
  },
  "pandemic": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.8371,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.6282,
    1.0706
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0196,
   "n_recent": 38,
   "n_total": 41
  },
  "credit": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 4.8368,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    3.732,
    6.0595
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.1135,
   "n_recent": 46,
   "n_total": 90,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "banking_crisis",
    "credit"
   ]
  },
  "supply_chain": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.2052,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.1132,
    0.3192
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0048,
   "n_recent": 10,
   "n_total": 10
  },
  "crypto_rally": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.4252,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.2919,
    0.579
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.01,
   "n_recent": 23,
   "n_total": 23
  },
  "tech_ai_bull": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.2842,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.1824,
    0.4044
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0067,
   "n_recent": 17,
   "n_total": 17
  },
  "power": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.4869,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    1.1158,
    1.9017
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0349,
   "n_recent": 38,
   "n_total": 50,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "energy",
    "power"
   ]
  },
  "biotech": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.1843,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.0891,
    0.307
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0043,
   "n_recent": 7,
   "n_total": 8
  },
  "science": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.3895,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.25,
    0.5542
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0091,
   "n_recent": 17,
   "n_total": 18
  },
  "health": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.1843,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.0891,
    0.307
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0043,
   "n_recent": 7,
   "n_total": 8,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "biotech",
    "health"
   ]
  },
  "consumer": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.0161,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.0018,
    0.0416
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0004,
   "n_recent": 1,
   "n_total": 1
  },
  "biosecurity": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.8643,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.6512,
    1.1022
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0203,
   "n_recent": 39,
   "n_total": 42,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "biosecurity",
    "pandemic"
   ]
  },
  "energy_transition": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.503,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    1.1324,
    1.9167
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0353,
   "n_recent": 39,
   "n_total": 51,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "energy",
    "energy_transition"
   ]
  },
  "space": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 0.3895,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.25,
    0.5542
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0091,
   "n_recent": 17,
   "n_total": 18,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "science",
    "space"
   ]
  },
  "climate": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.2554,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    0.8057,
    1.7862
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0295,
   "n_recent": 17,
   "n_total": 26,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "climate",
    "disaster"
   ]
  },
  "credit_easing": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 2.9287,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    2.3333,
    3.5799
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0687,
   "n_recent": 59,
   "n_total": 82,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "monetary_easing",
    "risk_on"
   ]
  },
  "growth": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.8868,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    1.4373,
    2.3868
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0443,
   "n_recent": 42,
   "n_total": 55,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "risk_on"
   ]
  },
  "geo_deescalation": {
   "lambda_per_yr": 1.8868,
   "ci90_per_yr": [
    1.4373,
    2.3868
   ],
   "share_of_events": 0.0443,
   "n_recent": 42,
   "n_total": 55,
   "equiv": true,
   "members": [
    "risk_on"
   ]
  }
 },
 "method": "decade-normalized share \u00d7 modern-era anchor rate; Jeffreys +0.5; ~90% Gamma interval (Wilson\u2013Hilferty); p_class = 1\u2212exp(\u2212\u03bb\u00b7window)",
 "caveat": "Rates are measured within our verified event library \u2014 a curated census of market-moving events, not of all world events. That is the relevant reference class for market scenarios, and it is fully auditable: every event has a date and a source URL."
}