{
  "causal_cascade": {
    "conditional_asset_watchlist": [
      {
        "dir": "flat",
        "name": "Microsoft",
        "sym": "MSFT"
      },
      {
        "dir": "flat",
        "name": "Nasdaq 100",
        "sym": "NDX"
      },
      {
        "dir": "flat",
        "name": "S&P 500",
        "sym": "SPX"
      }
    ],
    "first_order_edges": [],
    "limitation": "The asset list is a conditional watchlist. Causal edge order and expected move ranges are not claimed by this receipt unless separately measured.",
    "scenario": {
      "id": 4360,
      "scenario_probability_pct": 10,
      "stance": "RISK-OFF",
      "title": "Tech-sector earnings recession",
      "url": "/scenario/what-if-tech-sector-earnings-recession"
    },
    "second_order_edges": [],
    "status": "linked_scenario_and_conditional_watchlist"
  },
  "data_url": "https://macroguru.app/data/decision-receipts/big-tech-results-land.json",
  "decision": {
    "activation_condition": null,
    "activation_status": "not_registered",
    "claimed_edge": null,
    "invalidation_status": "bound_to_false_resolution_not_separately_registered",
    "next_proof_points": [
      {
        "due_at": "2026-07-30T22:00:00+00:00",
        "question": null,
        "type": "registered_resolver"
      }
    ],
    "now_what": "The dates are certain; the reaction is not. Read cloud growth, capex, and guidance before reading the headline EPS beat.",
    "research_boundary": "Scenario-conditional research framing only; not personalized investment advice.",
    "status": "research_monitor_only"
  },
  "decision_snapshot_sha256": "8a131eb6671214cad0411c79a6fcec219751c0a845b61911464c18982503875f",
  "divergence": {
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    "history_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/big-tech-results-land.json",
    "interpretation": "No matched market lane is available for comparison.",
    "published_minus_market_probability_points": null,
    "range_overlap": null,
    "shadow_history": {
      "edge_status": "not_measured",
      "model_range_vs_executable_interval": null,
      "published_minus_latest_midpoint_points": null,
      "published_vs_executable_interval": null,
      "status": "not_available"
    },
    "status": "not_measured"
  },
  "evidence": {
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    "evidence_pipeline_sha256": "82243a074b9d342517af8e2af3b0d9f8dc5343c603d6ea8b11736b9c177506c8",
    "evidence_snapshot_sha256": "63d05fb0b8fa5c88e7c049ab4e32054a6c6293459943a565475fbc506cf7bf04",
    "limitation": "Short claim-to-span citations are frozen and lineage-clustered, but captured_at is after the forecast lock. They cannot be treated as evidence used by the original decision.",
    "source_clusters": [
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:ca80fecf3a07",
        "host": "investor.atmeta.com",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      },
      {
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        "host": "ir.aboutamazon.com",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      },
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:cd01a124b43d",
        "host": "news.microsoft.com",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
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        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
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        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:meta",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "company_primary_source",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:meta-q2-2026-results",
        "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-to-Announce-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx"
      },
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:c96e2f657c69",
        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "Amazon — Q2 2026 earnings call",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:amazon",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "company_primary_source",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:amazon-q2-2026-results",
        "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/events/event-details/default.aspx"
      },
      {
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        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "Microsoft — FY2026 Q4 earnings date",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:microsoft",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "company_primary_source",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:microsoft-fy2026-q4-date",
        "url": "https://news.microsoft.com/source/2026/07/08/microsoft-announces-quarterly-earnings-release-date-68/"
      }
    ],
    "status": "retrospective_passages_verified_not_decision_eligible",
    "verified_passages": [
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        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
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        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:investor.atmeta.com",
        "name": "Meta — Q2 2026 results date",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:meta",
        "passage_id": "passage:meta-july-29-results",
        "passage_sha256": "edb3633e0359ce35c4ad56cd01117f2a273e0d59b2ba66f18d7dd9d15eea74a9",
        "published_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
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        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:meta-q2-2026-results",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "text": "Meta's second quarter 2026 financial results will be released after market close on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-to-Announce-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx"
      },
      {
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 120,
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        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
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        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:news.microsoft.com",
        "name": "Microsoft — FY2026 Q4 earnings date",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:microsoft",
        "passage_id": "passage:microsoft-july-29-results",
        "passage_sha256": "8f1a2811b38bb7ae0cd9ce1f975b70e976a2cf7a5fb0984fd2052b2046661420",
        "published_at": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
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        "source_class": "company_primary_source",
        "source_id": "microsoft-fy2026-q4-date",
        "source_locator": "Company News release, first paragraph",
        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:microsoft-fy2026-q4-date",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "text": "Microsoft will publish fiscal year 2026 fourth-quarter financial results after market close on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://news.microsoft.com/source/2026/07/08/microsoft-announces-quarterly-earnings-release-date-68/"
      },
      {
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        "host_cluster_id": "host:ir.aboutamazon.com",
        "name": "Amazon — Q2 2026 earnings call",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:amazon",
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        "published_at": null,
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        "source_id": "amazon-q2-2026-date",
        "source_locator": "Event Details",
        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:amazon-q2-2026-results",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "text": "Q2 2026 Amazon.com, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. July 30, 2026, 2:00 PM PT.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/events/event-details/default.aspx"
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    ],
    "what_changed_status": "passage_backfill_added_after_forecast_lock"
  },
  "hypothesis": {
    "category": "markets_corporate",
    "claim": "Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday; Amazon reports Thursday. Three of the market's largest AI-spending receipts arrive inside 24 hours.",
    "horizon_seconds": 592101,
    "horizon_status": "exact_timestamp",
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    "published_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.194794+00:00",
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if Microsoft and Meta publish their scheduled results on July 29 and Amazon publishes its scheduled results on July 30. Scheduled-certain and excluded from the skill score.",
    "resolver": {
      "kind": "calendar_true",
      "note": "Microsoft and Meta scheduled results for July 29, 2026; Amazon scheduled its Q2 call for July 30, 2026.",
      "outcome": true
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T22:00:00+00:00",
    "scheduled_certain": true,
    "title": "The AI capex week lands: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon"
  },
  "lanes": {
    "combined": {
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      "limitation": "No combined estimate is published until weights are learned on prior matched, prequential resolutions.",
      "production_probability": null,
      "sensitivity_only": [],
      "status": "withheld_no_performance_learned_weight"
    },
    "human": {
      "limitation": "No separately frozen analyst estimate exists apart from the published MacroGuru call.",
      "probability": null,
      "rationale_reference": null,
      "status": "not_separately_submitted"
    },
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      "history_status": "no_matched_market_contract",
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      "latest_observation": null,
      "limitation": "No matched prediction-market measurement is registered.",
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      "probability": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "status": "not_available",
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      "unresolved_weight_eligibility": false
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      "agreement_probability": null,
      "disagreement_probability": null,
      "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
      "limitation": "The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.",
      "method_version": "registered-concept-evidence-v1",
      "opposing_passages": [],
      "public_claims": [
        {
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          ],
          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "microsoft-results-date",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "Microsoft scheduled its fiscal Q4 results for after the July 29 close."
        },
        {
          "citation_passage_ids": [
            "passage:meta-july-29-results"
          ],
          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "meta-results-date",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "Meta scheduled its Q2 results for after the July 29 close."
        },
        {
          "citation_passage_ids": [
            "passage:amazon-july-30-call"
          ],
          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "amazon-results-date",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "Amazon scheduled its Q2 earnings call for July 30 at 2:00 p.m. Pacific."
        }
      ],
      "retrospective_passages": [
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          "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
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          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:meta-q2-2026-results",
          "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
          "text": "Meta's second quarter 2026 financial results will be released after market close on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.",
          "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
          "url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-to-Announce-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx"
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          "source_id": "microsoft-fy2026-q4-date",
          "source_locator": "Company News release, first paragraph",
          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:microsoft-fy2026-q4-date",
          "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
          "text": "Microsoft will publish fiscal year 2026 fourth-quarter financial results after market close on Wednesday, July 29, 2026.",
          "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
          "url": "https://news.microsoft.com/source/2026/07/08/microsoft-announces-quarterly-earnings-release-date-68/"
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          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:amazon-q2-2026-results",
          "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
          "text": "Q2 2026 Amazon.com, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. July 30, 2026, 2:00 PM PT.",
          "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
          "url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/events/event-details/default.aspx"
        }
      ],
      "stage_receipt_sha256": "82243a074b9d342517af8e2af3b0d9f8dc5343c603d6ea8b11736b9c177506c8",
      "stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/big-tech-results-land.json",
      "status": "abstained_no_prepublication_directional_passages",
      "supporting_passages": []
    },
    "statistical_model": {
      "limitation": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.",
      "method_version": null,
      "probability": null,
      "probability_interval": null,
      "scalar_publishable": false,
      "status": "not_independently_measured"
    }
  },
  "public_url": "https://macroguru.app/decision-receipts/big-tech-results-land",
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    "chain_sequence": 17,
    "chain_url": "/data/predictions_chain.jsonl",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_sha256": "9578ac71c521e8e7de91be10bd39f4a38525fa1e847ec012bec50c16253b167f",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/big-tech-results-land.json",
    "ledger_id": "2026-07-24__big-tech-results-land",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_sha256": "82243a074b9d342517af8e2af3b0d9f8dc5343c603d6ea8b11736b9c177506c8",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/big-tech-results-land.json",
    "scientific_receipt_sha256": null,
    "scientific_receipt_url": null
  },
  "published_forecast": {
    "basis": "scheduled",
    "basis_label": "Scheduled · near-certain",
    "honesty_note": "This is the immutable published call. It is not silently relabeled as a narrative-only, model-only, or market-only estimate.",
    "probability": 0.99,
    "rationale_summary": "All three companies have published official earnings dates. The scheduled releases are near-certain; the unknown is what cloud growth and AI capex do to the Nasdaq.",
    "status": "frozen_for_scoring"
  },
  "receipt_id": "2026-07-24__big-tech-results-land",
  "receipt_sha256": "17d57ff7e6f867ddd624b744ece8e1279e3028b4f5aa729a6d0d70e7e8131ede",
  "receipt_version": 3,
  "resolution": {
    "evidence": {
      "basis": "official_source",
      "note": "Microsoft and Meta published results July 29; Amazon announced Q2 results July 30. All three required disclosures landed by the frozen deadline.",
      "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q4/press-release-webcast",
      "urls": [
        "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q4/press-release-webcast",
        "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx",
        "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000024/amzn-20260730.htm"
      ]
    },
    "outcome": true,
    "resolved_on": "2026-07-30",
    "status": "resolved"
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  "schema_version": "1.2.0",
  "scoring_contract": {
    "benchmarks": [],
    "outcome_domain": "binary",
    "primary_score": null,
    "primary_score_formula": null,
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if Microsoft and Meta publish their scheduled results on July 29 and Amazon publishes its scheduled results on July 30. Scheduled-certain and excluded from the skill score.",
    "resolver": {
      "kind": "calendar_true",
      "note": "Microsoft and Meta scheduled results for July 29, 2026; Amazon scheduled its Q2 call for July 30, 2026.",
      "outcome": true
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T22:00:00+00:00",
    "secondary_scores": [],
    "status": "excluded_scheduled_anchor"
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "data": "Passage spans are frozen retrospectively; none were captured before the current forecast lock.",
    "market": "No matched prediction-market measurement is registered.",
    "model": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.",
    "narrative": "The stage pipeline abstained from a narrative score to prevent hindsight.",
    "source": "Lineage is registered, but effective original-decision breadth is zero because all captured spans are post-lock.",
    "specification": "No separate model specification receipt."
  }
}