{ "causal_cascade": { "conditional_asset_watchlist": [ { "dir": "flat", "name": "GBPUSD", "sym": "GBPUSD" }, { "dir": "flat", "name": "US dollar", "sym": "DXY" }, { "dir": "flat", "name": "10Y Treasury yield", "sym": "DGS10" } ], "first_order_edges": [], "limitation": "The asset list is a conditional watchlist. Causal edge order and expected move ranges are not claimed by this receipt unless separately measured.", "scenario": { "id": 9196, "scenario_probability_pct": 40, "stance": "RISK-ON", "title": "EM disinflation lets central banks cut while keeping real rates high", "url": "/scenario/what-if-em-disinflation-lets-central-banks-cut-while-keeping-real-rate" }, "second_order_edges": [], "status": "linked_scenario_and_conditional_watchlist" }, "data_url": "https://macroguru.app/data/decision-receipts/boe-holds-july.json", "decision": { "activation_condition": null, "activation_status": "not_registered", "claimed_edge": "No claimed edge: this is a near-consensus call whose miss would be a genuine regime break.", "invalidation_status": "bound_to_false_resolution_not_separately_registered", "next_proof_points": [ { "due_at": "2026-07-30T11:00:00+00:00", "question": "Did the Bank of England leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in its July 30, 2026 MPC decision?", "type": "registered_resolver" } ], "now_what": "Treat the hold as consensus. The signal is whether the vote and inflation path pull the next move toward a hike or deeper into 2027.", "research_boundary": "Scenario-conditional research framing only; not personalized investment advice.", "status": "research_monitor_only" }, "decision_snapshot_sha256": "0fb107c32c622bf020a711fad42a1feb498ce3d9ae7c73b0181c02a8d008bd7a", "divergence": { "history_receipt_sha256": "f97ec19af32cfe2bcfa065ce64d059c473b39545795bf55826426324232225ff", "history_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/boe-holds-july.json", "interpretation": "The point difference is descriptive. It is not a learned trading edge and cannot establish disagreement after costs or shared evidence.", "published_minus_market_probability_points": -1.0, "range_overlap": null, "shadow_history": { "edge_status": "withheld_shared_input_and_unverified_costs", "model_range_vs_executable_interval": null, "published_minus_latest_midpoint_points": -0.25, "published_vs_executable_interval": "published_inside_live_spread", "status": "descriptive_only_published_call_used_market_input" }, "status": "observed_point_gap_not_validated_edge" }, "evidence": { "effective_independent_source_count": 0, "evidence_pipeline_sha256": "625d920495e9dfd9d31f5540c1305756e91af051d8fcec060659b71aa0e7e374", "evidence_snapshot_sha256": "5d964966bcdcac9434a7b5c2de2c5ae669156e8e3ef29e91a61788747fbd7cbe", "limitation": "Short claim-to-span citations are frozen and lineage-clustered, but captured_at is after the forecast lock. They cannot be treated as evidence used by the original decision.", "source_clusters": [ { "cluster_id": "host:05a475ec1ee3", "host": "polymarket.com", "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis", "source_count": 1 }, { "cluster_id": "host:ff440b6b9538", "host": "www.bankofengland.co.uk", "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis", "source_count": 2 } ], "sources": [ { "host_cluster_id": "host:05a475ec1ee3", "independence_status": "not_verified", "name": "Polymarket — Bank of England decision in July", "origin_cluster_id": null, "passage_status": "not_frozen", "source_class": "prediction_market", "syndication_cluster_id": null, "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-england-decision-in-july" }, { "host_cluster_id": "host:ff440b6b9538", "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible", "name": "Bank of England — June 2026 MPC minutes", "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england", "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible", "source_class": "external_research_source", "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-minutes-june-2026", "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-june-2026.pdf" }, { "host_cluster_id": "host:ff440b6b9538", "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible", "name": "Bank of England — upcoming events", "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england", "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible", "source_class": "external_research_source", "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-upcoming-events-july-2026", "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/upcoming-events" } ], "status": "retrospective_passages_verified_not_decision_eligible", "verified_passages": [ { "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill", "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z", "char_end": 88, "char_start": 0, "decision_eligible": false, "decision_exclusion_reasons": [ "captured_after_forecast_lock" ], "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk", "name": "Bank of England — June 2026 MPC minutes", "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england", "passage_id": "passage:boe-june-hold", "passage_sha256": "55c282228365a53179a5a9698668df2eedef1378aa8e54eec839f9c28b9fa7da", "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00Z", "relevance_status": "verified", "retrieval_score": 0.885714, "source_class": "official_public_authority", "source_id": "boe-minutes-june-2026", "source_locator": "Page 2, Monetary Policy Summary", "stance": "supports", "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-minutes-june-2026", "temporal_class": "current_state", "text": "The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%.", "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract", "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-june-2026.pdf" }, { "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill", "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z", "char_end": 115, "char_start": 0, "decision_eligible": false, "decision_exclusion_reasons": [ "captured_after_forecast_lock", "stance_classifier_abstained" ], "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk", "name": "Bank of England — upcoming events", "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england", "passage_id": "passage:boe-july-meeting", "passage_sha256": "adcbf141dae0675c769c25685ed12bb67007d8d25022664cf6569d4fda6446c3", "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00Z", "relevance_status": "verified", "retrieval_score": 0.871429, "source_class": "official_public_authority", "source_id": "boe-upcoming-events-july-2026", "source_locator": "27 to 31 July, Thursday 30 July", "stance": "abstain", "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-upcoming-events-july-2026", "temporal_class": "forward_looking", "text": "Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting - July 2026. Thursday 30 July at 12pm.", "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract", "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/upcoming-events" }, { "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill", "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z", "char_end": 109, "char_start": 0, "decision_eligible": false, "decision_exclusion_reasons": [ "captured_after_forecast_lock" ], "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk", "name": "Bank of England — June 2026 MPC minutes", "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england", "passage_id": "passage:boe-labour-loosens", "passage_sha256": "15c19dbc6d42d70ed673bfe20d11e618c1ab2a6403456315ce729bfea782ac70", "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00Z", "relevance_status": "verified", "retrieval_score": 0.871429, "source_class": "official_public_authority", "source_id": "boe-minutes-june-2026", "source_locator": "Page 2, Monetary Policy Summary", "stance": "supports", "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-minutes-june-2026", "temporal_class": "forward_looking", "text": "The labour market continues to loosen, and signs of a weakening economy could contain inflationary pressures.", "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt", "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-june-2026.pdf" } ], "what_changed_status": "passage_backfill_added_after_forecast_lock" }, "hypothesis": { "category": "central_banks_fx", "claim": "The MPC leaves Bank Rate unchanged on Thursday. Above-target inflation blocks a cut; softer labour data blocks a hike.", "horizon_seconds": 552501, "horizon_status": "exact_timestamp", "hypothesis_id": "hyp_3a917ffc0c57624afc8d2b04", "published_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.194794+00:00", "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if the Bank of England's July MPC decision leaves Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%; FALSE if Bank Rate is raised or lowered.", "resolver": { "gdelt_query": "(Bank of England OR BoE) AND (Bank Rate OR interest rates)", "kind": "news_llm", "news_query": "Bank of England July 30 2026 MPC Bank Rate decision official", "question": "Did the Bank of England leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in its July 30, 2026 MPC decision?" }, "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T11:00:00+00:00", "scheduled_certain": false, "title": "The Bank of England holds at 3.75%" }, "lanes": { "combined": { "learned_market_weight": null, "limitation": "No combined estimate is published until weights are learned on prior matched, prequential resolutions.", "production_probability": null, "sensitivity_only": [], "status": "withheld_no_performance_learned_weight" }, "human": { "limitation": "No separately frozen analyst estimate exists apart from the published MacroGuru call.", "probability": null, "rationale_reference": null, "status": "not_separately_submitted" }, "market": { "contract_cluster_count": 1, "executable_probability_interval": null, "fees": null, "history_observation_count": 2, "history_receipt_sha256": "f97ec19af32cfe2bcfa065ce64d059c473b39545795bf55826426324232225ff", "history_status": "history_available", "history_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/boe-holds-july.json", "latest_observation": { "capture_kind": "tls_verified_public_clob_top_of_book", "captured_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:58.243347Z", "execution_status": "top_of_book_only_depth_and_fees_not_costed", "fee_status": "not_verified_for_cost_adjustment", "midpoint": 0.9725, "observation_id": "marketobs_cbf0c24e8f5417862fd6b6d0", "observation_sha256": "e14f20c7980112b3bfce82058b6bec0540e556a9de9937308d20412d74034637", "observed_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:55.522000Z", "original_decision_eligibility": "captured_after_publication_not_eligible", "point_probability": null, "source_receipt_sha256": "adf86b91da3ebca684e6c486f85ca0d38118705b65a2a715055080f4a1ee7b82", "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-england-decision-in-july", "spread": 0.013, "top_ask_size": 54.9, "top_bid_size": 36.0, "yes_ask": 0.979, "yes_bid": 0.966 }, "limitation": "This is the point-in-time crowd probability cited by the frozen call. No bid/ask, depth, fee, or contract-correlation receipt is attached.", "liquidity": null, "probability": 0.98, "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-england-decision-in-july", "status": "cited_point_snapshot_no_executable_interval", "underlying_event_family_count": 1, "unresolved_weight_eligibility": false }, "narrative": { "agreement_index": null, "agreement_index_90_interval": null, "agreement_probability": null, "disagreement_probability": null, "effective_independent_source_count": 0, "limitation": "The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.", "method_version": "registered-concept-evidence-v1", "opposing_passages": [], "public_claims": [ { "citation_passage_ids": [ "passage:boe-june-hold" ], "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span", "claim_id": "boe-prior-hold", "missing_citation_passage_ids": [], "text": "At its June meeting, the MPC voted 7-2 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%." }, { "citation_passage_ids": [ "passage:boe-labour-loosens" ], "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span", "claim_id": "boe-labour-balance", "missing_citation_passage_ids": [], "text": "The June minutes said a loosening labour market could contain inflationary pressure." } ], "retrospective_passages": [ { "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill", "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z", "char_end": 88, "char_start": 0, "decision_eligible": false, "decision_exclusion_reasons": [ "captured_after_forecast_lock" ], "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk", "name": "Bank of England — June 2026 MPC minutes", "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england", "passage_id": "passage:boe-june-hold", "passage_sha256": "55c282228365a53179a5a9698668df2eedef1378aa8e54eec839f9c28b9fa7da", "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00Z", "relevance_status": "verified", "retrieval_score": 0.885714, "source_class": "official_public_authority", "source_id": "boe-minutes-june-2026", "source_locator": "Page 2, Monetary Policy Summary", "stance": "supports", "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-minutes-june-2026", "temporal_class": "current_state", "text": "The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%.", "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract", "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-june-2026.pdf" }, { "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill", "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z", "char_end": 115, "char_start": 0, "decision_eligible": false, "decision_exclusion_reasons": [ "captured_after_forecast_lock", "stance_classifier_abstained" ], "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk", "name": "Bank of England — upcoming events", "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england", "passage_id": "passage:boe-july-meeting", "passage_sha256": "adcbf141dae0675c769c25685ed12bb67007d8d25022664cf6569d4fda6446c3", "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00Z", "relevance_status": "verified", "retrieval_score": 0.871429, "source_class": "official_public_authority", "source_id": "boe-upcoming-events-july-2026", "source_locator": "27 to 31 July, Thursday 30 July", "stance": "abstain", "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-upcoming-events-july-2026", "temporal_class": "forward_looking", "text": "Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting - July 2026. Thursday 30 July at 12pm.", "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract", "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/upcoming-events" }, { "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill", "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z", "char_end": 109, "char_start": 0, "decision_eligible": false, "decision_exclusion_reasons": [ "captured_after_forecast_lock" ], "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk", "name": "Bank of England — June 2026 MPC minutes", "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england", "passage_id": "passage:boe-labour-loosens", "passage_sha256": "15c19dbc6d42d70ed673bfe20d11e618c1ab2a6403456315ce729bfea782ac70", "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00Z", "relevance_status": "verified", "retrieval_score": 0.871429, "source_class": "official_public_authority", "source_id": "boe-minutes-june-2026", "source_locator": "Page 2, Monetary Policy Summary", "stance": "supports", "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-minutes-june-2026", "temporal_class": "forward_looking", "text": "The labour market continues to loosen, and signs of a weakening economy could contain inflationary pressures.", "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt", "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-june-2026.pdf" } ], "stage_receipt_sha256": "625d920495e9dfd9d31f5540c1305756e91af051d8fcec060659b71aa0e7e374", "stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/boe-holds-july.json", "status": "abstained_no_prepublication_directional_passages", "supporting_passages": [] }, "statistical_model": { "limitation": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.", "method_version": null, "probability": null, "probability_interval": null, "scalar_publishable": false, "status": "not_independently_measured" } }, "public_url": "https://macroguru.app/decision-receipts/boe-holds-july", "publication_integrity": { "chain_body_sha256": "d359ff8a38ba9f7ec8ab1baf02b8578731672118aab82dc0fec1379d0caf1850", "chain_entry_sha256": "d272793b119c4e8d565983911e8afc4d90633e593cd1367265babc61e2f637db", "chain_sequence": 18, "chain_url": "/data/predictions_chain.jsonl", "forecast_divergence_receipt_sha256": "f97ec19af32cfe2bcfa065ce64d059c473b39545795bf55826426324232225ff", "forecast_divergence_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/boe-holds-july.json", "ledger_id": "2026-07-24__boe-holds-july", "narrative_stage_receipt_sha256": "625d920495e9dfd9d31f5540c1305756e91af051d8fcec060659b71aa0e7e374", "narrative_stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/boe-holds-july.json", "scientific_receipt_sha256": null, "scientific_receipt_url": null }, "published_forecast": { "basis": "crowd", "basis_label": "Prediction-market crowd", "honesty_note": "This is the immutable published call. It is not silently relabeled as a narrative-only, model-only, or market-only estimate.", "probability": 0.97, "rationale_summary": "The June decision held at 3.75%, and the current prediction market puts no change near 98%. July's Monetary Policy Report matters more than the rate line.", "status": "frozen_for_scoring" }, "receipt_id": "2026-07-24__boe-holds-july", "receipt_sha256": "89f435e27f9a0fb4952c56a37d6427718edebbc6bfdc97e9e878fa46f0200521", "receipt_version": 3, "resolution": { "evidence": { "basis": "official_source", "note": "The MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% on July 30.", "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026", "urls": [ "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/july-2026" ] }, "outcome": true, "resolved_on": "2026-07-30", "status": "resolved" }, "schema_version": "1.2.0", "scoring_contract": { "benchmarks": [ "no_skill_0.50", "frozen_crowd_probability" ], "outcome_domain": "binary", "primary_score": "brier", "primary_score_formula": "(published_probability - binary_outcome)^2", "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if the Bank of England's July MPC decision leaves Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%; FALSE if Bank Rate is raised or lowered.", "resolver": { "gdelt_query": "(Bank of England OR BoE) AND (Bank Rate OR interest rates)", "kind": "news_llm", "news_query": "Bank of England July 30 2026 MPC Bank Rate decision official", "question": "Did the Bank of England leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in its July 30, 2026 MPC decision?" }, "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T11:00:00+00:00", "secondary_scores": [ "log_score", "hit_rate" ], "status": "registered" }, "uncertainty": { "data": "Passage spans are frozen retrospectively; none were captured before the current forecast lock.", "market": "This is the point-in-time crowd probability cited by the frozen call. No bid/ask, depth, fee, or contract-correlation receipt is attached.", "model": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.", "narrative": "The stage pipeline abstained from a narrative score to prevent hindsight.", "source": "Lineage is registered, but effective original-decision breadth is zero because all captured spans are post-lock.", "specification": "No separate model specification receipt." } }