{
  "causal_cascade": {
    "conditional_asset_watchlist": [
      {
        "dir": "up",
        "name": "Yen",
        "sym": "USDJPY"
      },
      {
        "dir": "up",
        "name": "US dollar",
        "sym": "DXY"
      },
      {
        "dir": "flat",
        "name": "Gold",
        "sym": "XAU"
      },
      {
        "dir": "flat",
        "name": "Nasdaq 100",
        "sym": "NDX"
      }
    ],
    "first_order_edges": [],
    "limitation": "The asset list is a conditional watchlist. Causal edge order and expected move ranges are not claimed by this receipt unless separately measured.",
    "scenario": {
      "id": 9155,
      "scenario_probability_pct": 19,
      "stance": "RISK-OFF",
      "title": "BOJ hikes faster than markets price, snapping the yen carry trade",
      "url": "/scenario/what-if-boj-hikes-faster-than-markets-price-snapping-the-yen-carry-tra"
    },
    "second_order_edges": [],
    "status": "linked_scenario_and_conditional_watchlist"
  },
  "data_url": "https://macroguru.app/data/decision-receipts/boj-holds-july.json",
  "decision": {
    "activation_condition": null,
    "activation_status": "not_registered",
    "claimed_edge": "No claimed edge versus the crowd. The value is putting the tail risk and its transmission on one card.",
    "invalidation_status": "bound_to_false_resolution_not_separately_registered",
    "next_proof_points": [
      {
        "due_at": "2026-07-31T06:30:00+00:00",
        "question": "Did the Bank of Japan leave its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 1.0% at the July 30–31, 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?",
        "type": "registered_resolver"
      }
    ],
    "now_what": "A pause leaves the yen carry intact for one more meeting; a surprise hike would hit USD/JPY and global duration fast.",
    "research_boundary": "Scenario-conditional research framing only; not personalized investment advice.",
    "status": "research_monitor_only"
  },
  "decision_snapshot_sha256": "8a34512bb82b23092f4efbe30ee1671591026821f5fce94e165f6f52c81b460c",
  "divergence": {
    "history_receipt_sha256": "e708a1c5e63eb2260e4ef7f4bb694464085dbefe6af1eb3506bed4cd879dd700",
    "history_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/boj-holds-july.json",
    "interpretation": "The point difference is descriptive. It is not a learned trading edge and cannot establish disagreement after costs or shared evidence.",
    "published_minus_market_probability_points": -1.0,
    "range_overlap": null,
    "shadow_history": {
      "edge_status": "withheld_shared_input_and_unverified_costs",
      "model_range_vs_executable_interval": null,
      "published_minus_latest_midpoint_points": -1.45,
      "published_vs_executable_interval": "published_below_live_bid",
      "status": "descriptive_only_published_call_used_market_input"
    },
    "status": "observed_point_gap_not_validated_edge"
  },
  "evidence": {
    "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
    "evidence_pipeline_sha256": "c06a4f5db073b99c45f069674517b00433b7f8635b1a91a16eb9350be746c41e",
    "evidence_snapshot_sha256": "133cbaa833416de7f93694e5e967db3365f7c8cbe1e68ac822851269efbe7cc5",
    "limitation": "Short claim-to-span citations are frozen and lineage-clustered, but captured_at is after the forecast lock. They cannot be treated as evidence used by the original decision.",
    "source_clusters": [
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:05a475ec1ee3",
        "host": "polymarket.com",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      },
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:4c0e93028d7c",
        "host": "www.boj.or.jp",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 3
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:05a475ec1ee3",
        "independence_status": "not_verified",
        "name": "Polymarket — Bank of Japan decision in July",
        "origin_cluster_id": null,
        "passage_status": "not_frozen",
        "source_class": "prediction_market",
        "syndication_cluster_id": null,
        "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-july-659"
      },
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:4c0e93028d7c",
        "independence_status": "not_verified",
        "name": "Bank of Japan — release schedule",
        "origin_cluster_id": null,
        "passage_status": "not_frozen",
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "syndication_cluster_id": null,
        "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/about/calendar/"
      },
      {
        "discovery_status": "linked_primary_source_backfill",
        "host_cluster_id": "host:4c0e93028d7c",
        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "Bank of Japan — June 2026 policy decision",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-japan",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boj-june-2026-policy-change",
        "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260616a.pdf"
      },
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:4c0e93028d7c",
        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "Bank of Japan — 2026 meeting schedule",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-japan",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boj-meeting-calendar-2026",
        "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/"
      }
    ],
    "status": "retrospective_passages_verified_not_decision_eligible",
    "verified_passages": [
      {
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 108,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:boj.or.jp",
        "name": "Bank of Japan — 2026 meeting schedule",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-japan",
        "passage_id": "passage:boj-july-meeting",
        "passage_sha256": "bf575f42bee5ccb67f68803f81d0301dff3dffdc135a73f501be1ca3688e58bc",
        "published_at": null,
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.898214,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "boj-meeting-calendar-2026",
        "source_locator": "2026 Date of MPM table",
        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boj-meeting-calendar-2026",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "text": "The Bank of Japan's July Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled for Thursday July 30 and Friday July 31, 2026.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/"
      },
      {
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 97,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:boj.or.jp",
        "name": "Bank of Japan — June 2026 policy decision",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-japan",
        "passage_id": "passage:boj-june-rate-1-0",
        "passage_sha256": "8654513b885836e4dc154e7700ca95c0df0ee8f2bbbc1d0e7b25896cc7cdea7f",
        "published_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.876786,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "boj-june-2026-policy-change",
        "source_locator": "Page 1, guideline for money market operations",
        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boj-june-2026-policy-change",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "text": "The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0 percent.",
        "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
        "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260616a.pdf"
      }
    ],
    "what_changed_status": "passage_backfill_added_after_forecast_lock"
  },
  "hypothesis": {
    "category": "asia_macro",
    "claim": "The BoJ leaves its policy rate at 1.0% on Friday. One month after a hike, it waits for more inflation and yen evidence.",
    "horizon_seconds": 622701,
    "horizon_status": "exact_timestamp",
    "hypothesis_id": "hyp_7015869739ca339acd246f59",
    "published_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.194794+00:00",
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if the Bank of Japan leaves its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 1.0% at the July 30–31 meeting; FALSE if it raises or lowers the rate.",
    "resolver": {
      "gdelt_query": "(Bank of Japan OR BoJ) AND (interest rate OR monetary policy)",
      "kind": "news_llm",
      "news_query": "Bank of Japan July 31 2026 interest rate decision official statement",
      "question": "Did the Bank of Japan leave its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 1.0% at the July 30–31, 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-31T06:30:00+00:00",
    "scheduled_certain": false,
    "title": "The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike"
  },
  "lanes": {
    "combined": {
      "learned_market_weight": null,
      "limitation": "No combined estimate is published until weights are learned on prior matched, prequential resolutions.",
      "production_probability": null,
      "sensitivity_only": [],
      "status": "withheld_no_performance_learned_weight"
    },
    "human": {
      "limitation": "No separately frozen analyst estimate exists apart from the published MacroGuru call.",
      "probability": null,
      "rationale_reference": null,
      "status": "not_separately_submitted"
    },
    "market": {
      "contract_cluster_count": 1,
      "executable_probability_interval": null,
      "fees": null,
      "history_observation_count": 2,
      "history_receipt_sha256": "e708a1c5e63eb2260e4ef7f4bb694464085dbefe6af1eb3506bed4cd879dd700",
      "history_status": "history_available",
      "history_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/boj-holds-july.json",
      "latest_observation": {
        "capture_kind": "tls_verified_public_clob_top_of_book",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T10:22:09.369309Z",
        "execution_status": "top_of_book_only_depth_and_fees_not_costed",
        "fee_status": "not_verified_for_cost_adjustment",
        "midpoint": 0.9745,
        "observation_id": "marketobs_e0e04e40fac5311e11c4966f",
        "observation_sha256": "4298cb50b53779668dc231523b60be69bff34531da988730c9dce7ee7f34277b",
        "observed_at": "2026-07-24T10:22:08.523000Z",
        "original_decision_eligibility": "captured_after_publication_not_eligible",
        "point_probability": null,
        "source_receipt_sha256": "5fb66f0063e3258e667c77942688fa16ebbd7c093207f46efcd2eaaf5225dfba",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-july-659",
        "spread": 0.005,
        "top_ask_size": 37.2,
        "top_bid_size": 14.0,
        "yes_ask": 0.977,
        "yes_bid": 0.972
      },
      "limitation": "This is the point-in-time crowd probability cited by the frozen call. No bid/ask, depth, fee, or contract-correlation receipt is attached.",
      "liquidity": null,
      "probability": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-july-659",
      "status": "cited_point_snapshot_no_executable_interval",
      "underlying_event_family_count": 1,
      "unresolved_weight_eligibility": false
    },
    "narrative": {
      "agreement_index": null,
      "agreement_index_90_interval": null,
      "agreement_probability": null,
      "disagreement_probability": null,
      "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
      "limitation": "The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.",
      "method_version": "registered-concept-evidence-v1",
      "opposing_passages": [],
      "public_claims": [
        {
          "citation_passage_ids": [
            "passage:boj-june-rate-1-0"
          ],
          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "boj-june-rate",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "The June BoJ decision set the overnight call-rate guideline at around 1.0%."
        },
        {
          "citation_passage_ids": [
            "passage:boj-july-meeting"
          ],
          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "boj-july-meeting",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "The BoJ calendar scheduled its next meeting for July 30-31."
        }
      ],
      "retrospective_passages": [
        {
          "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
          "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
          "char_end": 108,
          "char_start": 0,
          "decision_eligible": false,
          "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
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          ],
          "host_cluster_id": "host:boj.or.jp",
          "name": "Bank of Japan — 2026 meeting schedule",
          "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-japan",
          "passage_id": "passage:boj-july-meeting",
          "passage_sha256": "bf575f42bee5ccb67f68803f81d0301dff3dffdc135a73f501be1ca3688e58bc",
          "published_at": null,
          "relevance_status": "verified",
          "retrieval_score": 0.898214,
          "source_class": "official_public_authority",
          "source_id": "boj-meeting-calendar-2026",
          "source_locator": "2026 Date of MPM table",
          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boj-meeting-calendar-2026",
          "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
          "text": "The Bank of Japan's July Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled for Thursday July 30 and Friday July 31, 2026.",
          "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
          "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/"
        },
        {
          "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
          "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
          "char_end": 97,
          "char_start": 0,
          "decision_eligible": false,
          "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
            "captured_after_forecast_lock"
          ],
          "host_cluster_id": "host:boj.or.jp",
          "name": "Bank of Japan — June 2026 policy decision",
          "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-japan",
          "passage_id": "passage:boj-june-rate-1-0",
          "passage_sha256": "8654513b885836e4dc154e7700ca95c0df0ee8f2bbbc1d0e7b25896cc7cdea7f",
          "published_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
          "relevance_status": "verified",
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          "source_class": "official_public_authority",
          "source_id": "boj-june-2026-policy-change",
          "source_locator": "Page 1, guideline for money market operations",
          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boj-june-2026-policy-change",
          "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
          "text": "The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0 percent.",
          "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
          "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260616a.pdf"
        }
      ],
      "stage_receipt_sha256": "c06a4f5db073b99c45f069674517b00433b7f8635b1a91a16eb9350be746c41e",
      "stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/boj-holds-july.json",
      "status": "abstained_no_prepublication_directional_passages",
      "supporting_passages": []
    },
    "statistical_model": {
      "limitation": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.",
      "method_version": null,
      "probability": null,
      "probability_interval": null,
      "scalar_publishable": false,
      "status": "not_independently_measured"
    }
  },
  "public_url": "https://macroguru.app/decision-receipts/boj-holds-july",
  "publication_integrity": {
    "chain_body_sha256": "ee2b3562d6fa51cbbf4891efaebebb044d50f5901989a78fe1fbdf973334d13b",
    "chain_entry_sha256": "bbf8f87289f1cfd2a9b3dc8b1746d4eee088ecbf4954bd654832f429fe50a89d",
    "chain_sequence": 19,
    "chain_url": "/data/predictions_chain.jsonl",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_sha256": "e708a1c5e63eb2260e4ef7f4bb694464085dbefe6af1eb3506bed4cd879dd700",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/boj-holds-july.json",
    "ledger_id": "2026-07-24__boj-holds-july",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_sha256": "c06a4f5db073b99c45f069674517b00433b7f8635b1a91a16eb9350be746c41e",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/boj-holds-july.json",
    "scientific_receipt_sha256": null,
    "scientific_receipt_url": null
  },
  "published_forecast": {
    "basis": "crowd",
    "basis_label": "Prediction-market crowd",
    "honesty_note": "This is the immutable published call. It is not silently relabeled as a narrative-only, model-only, or market-only estimate.",
    "probability": 0.96,
    "rationale_summary": "The BoJ raised to 1.0% in June. The current market assigns about 97% to no change in July, making a back-to-back hike the clear tail risk.",
    "status": "frozen_for_scoring"
  },
  "receipt_id": "2026-07-24__boj-holds-july",
  "receipt_sha256": "ecf7670b2688db11a749b032f490aca9e59d2ae1510cc1f76965757959ca8310",
  "receipt_version": 3,
  "resolution": {
    "evidence": {
      "basis": "official_source",
      "note": "The Bank of Japan maintained the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 1.0%.",
      "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260731a.pdf",
      "urls": [
        "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260731a.pdf"
      ]
    },
    "outcome": true,
    "resolved_on": "2026-07-31",
    "status": "resolved"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.2.0",
  "scoring_contract": {
    "benchmarks": [
      "no_skill_0.50",
      "frozen_crowd_probability"
    ],
    "outcome_domain": "binary",
    "primary_score": "brier",
    "primary_score_formula": "(published_probability - binary_outcome)^2",
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if the Bank of Japan leaves its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 1.0% at the July 30–31 meeting; FALSE if it raises or lowers the rate.",
    "resolver": {
      "gdelt_query": "(Bank of Japan OR BoJ) AND (interest rate OR monetary policy)",
      "kind": "news_llm",
      "news_query": "Bank of Japan July 31 2026 interest rate decision official statement",
      "question": "Did the Bank of Japan leave its short-term policy interest rate unchanged at 1.0% at the July 30–31, 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?"
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-31T06:30:00+00:00",
    "secondary_scores": [
      "log_score",
      "hit_rate"
    ],
    "status": "registered"
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "data": "Passage spans are frozen retrospectively; none were captured before the current forecast lock.",
    "market": "This is the point-in-time crowd probability cited by the frozen call. No bid/ask, depth, fee, or contract-correlation receipt is attached.",
    "model": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.",
    "narrative": "The stage pipeline abstained from a narrative score to prevent hindsight.",
    "source": "Lineage is registered, but effective original-decision breadth is zero because all captured spans are post-lock.",
    "specification": "No separate model specification receipt."
  }
}