{
  "causal_cascade": {
    "conditional_asset_watchlist": [
      {
        "dir": "flat",
        "name": "10Y Treasury yield",
        "sym": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "dir": "flat",
        "name": "US dollar",
        "sym": "DXY"
      },
      {
        "dir": "up",
        "name": "Nasdaq 100",
        "sym": "NDX"
      },
      {
        "dir": "flat",
        "name": "Gold",
        "sym": "XAU"
      }
    ],
    "first_order_edges": [],
    "limitation": "The asset list is a conditional watchlist. Causal edge order and expected move ranges are not claimed by this receipt unless separately measured.",
    "scenario": {
      "id": 7383,
      "scenario_probability_pct": 27,
      "stance": "RISK-OFF",
      "title": "Oil-spike inflation scare forces a hawkish Fed hold",
      "url": "/scenario/what-if-oil-spike-inflation-scare-forces-a-hawkish-fed-hold"
    },
    "second_order_edges": [],
    "status": "linked_scenario_and_conditional_watchlist"
  },
  "data_url": "https://macroguru.app/data/decision-receipts/fed-holds-july.json",
  "decision": {
    "activation_condition": null,
    "activation_status": "not_registered",
    "claimed_edge": "Almost no edge versus the crowd — this is a high-confidence anchor, not a contrarian trade.",
    "invalidation_status": "bound_to_false_resolution_not_separately_registered",
    "next_proof_points": [
      {
        "due_at": "2026-07-29T18:00:00+00:00",
        "question": "Did the FOMC leave the target federal-funds range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in its July 29, 2026 policy statement?",
        "type": "registered_resolver"
      }
    ],
    "now_what": "The decision is the easy call; the statement is the market mover. Watch whether Chair Warsh keeps a September hike live.",
    "research_boundary": "Scenario-conditional research framing only; not personalized investment advice.",
    "status": "research_monitor_only"
  },
  "decision_snapshot_sha256": "a9ad066fb4e501f82411c55621e248750879376794fdcfd004cdf1a798748d83",
  "divergence": {
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    "history_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/fed-holds-july.json",
    "interpretation": "The point difference is descriptive. It is not a learned trading edge and cannot establish disagreement after costs or shared evidence.",
    "published_minus_market_probability_points": 1.0,
    "range_overlap": null,
    "shadow_history": {
      "edge_status": "withheld_shared_input_and_unverified_costs",
      "model_range_vs_executable_interval": null,
      "published_minus_latest_midpoint_points": 17.7,
      "published_vs_executable_interval": "published_above_live_ask",
      "status": "descriptive_only_published_call_used_market_input"
    },
    "status": "observed_point_gap_not_validated_edge"
  },
  "evidence": {
    "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
    "evidence_pipeline_sha256": "ed6d6a882d2d6def2dcd806e5ef650cd1f137bf8705f9902ad533b97d64382fb",
    "evidence_snapshot_sha256": "5cc1ad36c9fdbe13e5de9eaea957407ac8cd95f7763ebfd30ac733b384fe3e6e",
    "limitation": "Short claim-to-span citations are frozen and lineage-clustered, but captured_at is after the forecast lock. They cannot be treated as evidence used by the original decision.",
    "source_clusters": [
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:05a475ec1ee3",
        "host": "polymarket.com",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      },
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:9127cafbbd17",
        "host": "www.federalreserve.gov",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 2
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:05a475ec1ee3",
        "independence_status": "not_verified",
        "name": "Polymarket — Fed decision in July",
        "origin_cluster_id": null,
        "passage_status": "not_frozen",
        "source_class": "prediction_market",
        "syndication_cluster_id": null,
        "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181"
      },
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:9127cafbbd17",
        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "Federal Reserve — July 2026 Monetary Policy Report",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm"
      },
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:9127cafbbd17",
        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "Federal Reserve — 2026 FOMC calendar",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-fomc-calendar-2026",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
      }
    ],
    "status": "retrospective_passages_verified_not_decision_eligible",
    "verified_passages": [
      {
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 31,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:federalreserve.gov",
        "name": "Federal Reserve — 2026 FOMC calendar",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
        "passage_id": "passage:fed-calendar-july-2026",
        "passage_sha256": "908794d122bd1b4abb6087d5c0e3bcd8198d4f10c68164d881f81fd00134b146",
        "published_at": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.74697,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "fed-fomc-calendar-2026",
        "source_locator": "2026 FOMC Meetings table, July row",
        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-fomc-calendar-2026",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "text": "2026 FOMC Meetings. July 28-29.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
      },
      {
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 104,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:federalreserve.gov",
        "name": "Federal Reserve — July 2026 Monetary Policy Report",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
        "passage_id": "passage:fed-inflation-elevated",
        "passage_sha256": "45d184475f4ffe2b4946cb078d268e6470c710a9fb9b3684a777433e388c0ec6",
        "published_at": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.74697,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "source_locator": "Monetary Policy, Interest rate policy",
        "stance": "opposes",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "temporal_class": "current_state",
        "text": "Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks.",
        "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm"
      },
      {
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 126,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:federalreserve.gov",
        "name": "Federal Reserve — July 2026 Monetary Policy Report",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
        "passage_id": "passage:fed-policy-range-maintained",
        "passage_sha256": "54882e3620a1762a1cb1330f894376a54a573083e38b4286a05bad3546bec365",
        "published_at": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.74697,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "source_locator": "Monetary Policy, Interest rate policy",
        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "temporal_class": "current_state",
        "text": "The FOMC has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent since the beginning of the year.",
        "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm"
      }
    ],
    "what_changed_status": "passage_backfill_added_after_forecast_lock"
  },
  "hypothesis": {
    "category": "central_banks_fx",
    "claim": "The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. The hike risk is real later in 2026, not at this meeting.",
    "horizon_seconds": 491301,
    "horizon_status": "exact_timestamp",
    "hypothesis_id": "hyp_948fe5253d1b9cadbc0bf49a",
    "published_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.194794+00:00",
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if the July 28–29 FOMC statement leaves the target federal-funds range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%; FALSE if the range is raised or lowered.",
    "resolver": {
      "gdelt_query": "(FOMC OR Federal Reserve) AND (interest rate OR federal funds)",
      "kind": "news_llm",
      "news_query": "Federal Reserve July 29 2026 interest rate decision official statement",
      "question": "Did the FOMC leave the target federal-funds range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in its July 29, 2026 policy statement?"
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-29T18:00:00+00:00",
    "scheduled_certain": false,
    "title": "The Fed stays on hold — no July hike"
  },
  "lanes": {
    "combined": {
      "learned_market_weight": null,
      "limitation": "No combined estimate is published until weights are learned on prior matched, prequential resolutions.",
      "production_probability": null,
      "sensitivity_only": [],
      "status": "withheld_no_performance_learned_weight"
    },
    "human": {
      "limitation": "No separately frozen analyst estimate exists apart from the published MacroGuru call.",
      "probability": null,
      "rationale_reference": null,
      "status": "not_separately_submitted"
    },
    "market": {
      "contract_cluster_count": 1,
      "executable_probability_interval": null,
      "fees": null,
      "history_observation_count": 2,
      "history_receipt_sha256": "6f93122eacdb3f1e87779a7b54f762492fa10f1cc307c84364774867a993f968",
      "history_status": "history_available",
      "history_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/fed-holds-july.json",
      "latest_observation": {
        "capture_kind": "tls_verified_public_clob_top_of_book",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:48.372057Z",
        "execution_status": "top_of_book_only_depth_and_fees_not_costed",
        "fee_status": "not_verified_for_cost_adjustment",
        "midpoint": 0.763,
        "observation_id": "marketobs_81c34eb07744b94e67ca13e2",
        "observation_sha256": "b962589668f3b3f8387df6fdaf6bda8e96e61bef14aba104c0db785bf1962cc9",
        "observed_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:47.664000Z",
        "original_decision_eligibility": "captured_after_publication_not_eligible",
        "point_probability": null,
        "source_receipt_sha256": "e2bd010440376ac823705671a87f751b253f1494d8b0950134facfa5664421cc",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181",
        "spread": 0.002,
        "top_ask_size": 3744.21,
        "top_bid_size": 54.19,
        "yes_ask": 0.764,
        "yes_bid": 0.762
      },
      "limitation": "This is the point-in-time crowd probability cited by the frozen call. No bid/ask, depth, fee, or contract-correlation receipt is attached.",
      "liquidity": null,
      "probability": 0.93,
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181",
      "status": "cited_point_snapshot_no_executable_interval",
      "underlying_event_family_count": 1,
      "unresolved_weight_eligibility": false
    },
    "narrative": {
      "agreement_index": null,
      "agreement_index_90_interval": null,
      "agreement_probability": null,
      "disagreement_probability": null,
      "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
      "limitation": "The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.",
      "method_version": "registered-concept-evidence-v1",
      "opposing_passages": [],
      "public_claims": [
        {
          "citation_passage_ids": [
            "passage:fed-policy-range-maintained"
          ],
          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "fed-policy-before-july",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "Before the July meeting, the Fed reported that its 3.50%-3.75% target range had remained in place since the start of 2026."
        }
      ],
      "retrospective_passages": [
        {
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          "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
          "char_end": 31,
          "char_start": 0,
          "decision_eligible": false,
          "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
            "captured_after_forecast_lock"
          ],
          "host_cluster_id": "host:federalreserve.gov",
          "name": "Federal Reserve — 2026 FOMC calendar",
          "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
          "passage_id": "passage:fed-calendar-july-2026",
          "passage_sha256": "908794d122bd1b4abb6087d5c0e3bcd8198d4f10c68164d881f81fd00134b146",
          "published_at": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z",
          "relevance_status": "verified",
          "retrieval_score": 0.74697,
          "source_class": "official_public_authority",
          "source_id": "fed-fomc-calendar-2026",
          "source_locator": "2026 FOMC Meetings table, July row",
          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-fomc-calendar-2026",
          "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
          "text": "2026 FOMC Meetings. July 28-29.",
          "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
        },
        {
          "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
          "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
          "char_end": 104,
          "char_start": 0,
          "decision_eligible": false,
          "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
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          ],
          "host_cluster_id": "host:federalreserve.gov",
          "name": "Federal Reserve — July 2026 Monetary Policy Report",
          "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
          "passage_id": "passage:fed-inflation-elevated",
          "passage_sha256": "45d184475f4ffe2b4946cb078d268e6470c710a9fb9b3684a777433e388c0ec6",
          "published_at": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z",
          "relevance_status": "verified",
          "retrieval_score": 0.74697,
          "source_class": "official_public_authority",
          "source_id": "fed-mpr-july-2026",
          "source_locator": "Monetary Policy, Interest rate policy",
          "stance": "opposes",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-mpr-july-2026",
          "temporal_class": "current_state",
          "text": "Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks.",
          "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm"
        },
        {
          "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
          "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
          "char_end": 126,
          "char_start": 0,
          "decision_eligible": false,
          "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
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          ],
          "host_cluster_id": "host:federalreserve.gov",
          "name": "Federal Reserve — July 2026 Monetary Policy Report",
          "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
          "passage_id": "passage:fed-policy-range-maintained",
          "passage_sha256": "54882e3620a1762a1cb1330f894376a54a573083e38b4286a05bad3546bec365",
          "published_at": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z",
          "relevance_status": "verified",
          "retrieval_score": 0.74697,
          "source_class": "official_public_authority",
          "source_id": "fed-mpr-july-2026",
          "source_locator": "Monetary Policy, Interest rate policy",
          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-mpr-july-2026",
          "temporal_class": "current_state",
          "text": "The FOMC has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent since the beginning of the year.",
          "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm"
        }
      ],
      "stage_receipt_sha256": "ed6d6a882d2d6def2dcd806e5ef650cd1f137bf8705f9902ad533b97d64382fb",
      "stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/fed-holds-july.json",
      "status": "abstained_no_prepublication_directional_passages",
      "supporting_passages": []
    },
    "statistical_model": {
      "limitation": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.",
      "method_version": null,
      "probability": null,
      "probability_interval": null,
      "scalar_publishable": false,
      "status": "not_independently_measured"
    }
  },
  "public_url": "https://macroguru.app/decision-receipts/fed-holds-july",
  "publication_integrity": {
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    "chain_entry_sha256": "d97b4b666e3b14321b3e8f66805fc449a14fd7e39d858b33891271283c359986",
    "chain_sequence": 20,
    "chain_url": "/data/predictions_chain.jsonl",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_sha256": "6f93122eacdb3f1e87779a7b54f762492fa10f1cc307c84364774867a993f968",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/fed-holds-july.json",
    "ledger_id": "2026-07-24__fed-holds-july",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_sha256": "ed6d6a882d2d6def2dcd806e5ef650cd1f137bf8705f9902ad533b97d64382fb",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/fed-holds-july.json",
    "scientific_receipt_sha256": null,
    "scientific_receipt_url": null
  },
  "published_forecast": {
    "basis": "crowd",
    "basis_label": "Prediction-market crowd",
    "honesty_note": "This is the immutable published call. It is not silently relabeled as a narrative-only, model-only, or market-only estimate.",
    "probability": 0.94,
    "rationale_summary": "Polymarket prices roughly 93% no change, while June's FOMC projections and July's Monetary Policy Report still show inflation risk. The committee can stay hawkish without moving this week.",
    "status": "frozen_for_scoring"
  },
  "receipt_id": "2026-07-24__fed-holds-july",
  "receipt_sha256": "6fc13987c74ecee6b79dbd90eeb7f25a7891131f3b61fa2c845b9373cccbce92",
  "receipt_version": 3,
  "resolution": {
    "evidence": {
      "basis": "official_source",
      "note": "FOMC maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29.",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm",
      "urls": [
        "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm"
      ]
    },
    "outcome": true,
    "resolved_on": "2026-07-29",
    "status": "resolved"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.2.0",
  "scoring_contract": {
    "benchmarks": [
      "no_skill_0.50",
      "frozen_crowd_probability"
    ],
    "outcome_domain": "binary",
    "primary_score": "brier",
    "primary_score_formula": "(published_probability - binary_outcome)^2",
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if the July 28–29 FOMC statement leaves the target federal-funds range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%; FALSE if the range is raised or lowered.",
    "resolver": {
      "gdelt_query": "(FOMC OR Federal Reserve) AND (interest rate OR federal funds)",
      "kind": "news_llm",
      "news_query": "Federal Reserve July 29 2026 interest rate decision official statement",
      "question": "Did the FOMC leave the target federal-funds range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in its July 29, 2026 policy statement?"
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-29T18:00:00+00:00",
    "secondary_scores": [
      "log_score",
      "hit_rate"
    ],
    "status": "registered"
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "data": "Passage spans are frozen retrospectively; none were captured before the current forecast lock.",
    "market": "This is the point-in-time crowd probability cited by the frozen call. No bid/ask, depth, fee, or contract-correlation receipt is attached.",
    "model": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.",
    "narrative": "The stage pipeline abstained from a narrative score to prevent hindsight.",
    "source": "Lineage is registered, but effective original-decision breadth is zero because all captured spans are post-lock.",
    "specification": "No separate model specification receipt."
  }
}