{
  "causal_cascade": {
    "conditional_asset_watchlist": [
      {
        "dir": "down",
        "name": "10Y Treasury yield",
        "sym": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "dir": "down",
        "name": "US dollar",
        "sym": "DXY"
      },
      {
        "dir": "up",
        "name": "Gold",
        "sym": "XAU"
      },
      {
        "dir": "up",
        "name": "Nasdaq 100",
        "sym": "NDX"
      }
    ],
    "first_order_edges": [],
    "limitation": "The asset list is a conditional watchlist. Causal edge order and expected move ranges are not claimed by this receipt unless separately measured.",
    "scenario": {
      "id": 8638,
      "scenario_probability_pct": 14,
      "stance": "RISK-OFF",
      "title": "Services superinflation: shelter and insurance keep core PCE above 4%",
      "url": "/scenario/what-if-services-superinflation-shelter-and-insurance-keep-core-pce-ab"
    },
    "second_order_edges": [],
    "status": "linked_scenario_and_conditional_watchlist"
  },
  "data_url": "https://macroguru.app/data/decision-receipts/june-core-pce-cools.json",
  "decision": {
    "activation_condition": null,
    "activation_status": "not_registered",
    "claimed_edge": "MacroGuru is nearly aligned with the crowd; the value is the fixed threshold and the cross-asset map.",
    "invalidation_status": "bound_to_false_resolution_not_separately_registered",
    "next_proof_points": [
      {
        "due_at": "2026-07-30T12:30:00+00:00",
        "question": "Did BEA report June 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.3% year over year or lower in the July 30, 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release?",
        "type": "registered_resolver"
      }
    ],
    "now_what": "A 3.3% or lower print calms the immediate inflation impulse; 3.4% or higher puts the hike debate straight back on screen.",
    "research_boundary": "Scenario-conditional research framing only; not personalized investment advice.",
    "status": "research_monitor_only"
  },
  "decision_snapshot_sha256": "02e66f6c0daf62aed8ad81696b8b2df303aa2da33a1a0e4d5387ea99d4321223",
  "divergence": {
    "executable_bid_minus_maximum_probability": null,
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    "history_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/june-core-pce-cools.json",
    "interpretation": "Model and market remain separate. Overlap is an abstain/no-robust-edge state, not permission to average the two.",
    "minimum_probability_minus_executable_ask": null,
    "overlap": [
      0.76,
      0.77
    ],
    "shadow_history": {
      "edge_status": "withheld_shared_input_and_unverified_costs",
      "model_range_vs_executable_interval": "ranges_overlap_no_robust_edge",
      "published_minus_latest_midpoint_points": 1.5,
      "published_vs_executable_interval": "published_above_live_ask",
      "status": "descriptive_only_published_call_used_market_input"
    },
    "status": "no_robust_edge_ranges_overlap"
  },
  "evidence": {
    "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
    "evidence_pipeline_sha256": "bdb84536bb9aa1d5e5a2012f6d6e61c98d597db6f4815cf068026b6951efad6f",
    "evidence_snapshot_sha256": "ecffa26e9c0d743f841f4c597f543d10707e3d21b5578952ce7da3443daffa85",
    "limitation": "Short claim-to-span citations are frozen and lineage-clustered, but captured_at is after the forecast lock. They cannot be treated as evidence used by the original decision.",
    "source_clusters": [
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:05a475ec1ee3",
        "host": "polymarket.com",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      },
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:23c7c5141c45",
        "host": "www.bea.gov",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      },
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:9127cafbbd17",
        "host": "www.federalreserve.gov",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:05a475ec1ee3",
        "independence_status": "not_verified",
        "name": "Polymarket — June core PCE",
        "origin_cluster_id": null,
        "passage_status": "not_frozen",
        "source_class": "prediction_market",
        "syndication_cluster_id": null,
        "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/core-pce-yoy-june-2026-20260702040039732"
      },
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:23c7c5141c45",
        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "BEA — Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bea",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:bea-pce-index-june-2026",
        "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index"
      },
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:9127cafbbd17",
        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "Federal Reserve — July 2026 Monetary Policy Report",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm"
      }
    ],
    "status": "retrospective_passages_verified_not_decision_eligible",
    "verified_passages": [
      {
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 66,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:federalreserve.gov",
        "name": "Federal Reserve — July 2026 Monetary Policy Report",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
        "passage_id": "passage:fed-core-pce-may",
        "passage_sha256": "e0349cfac3509f8aa23076a12b8622895877803713a4c88a3751b1ff8fda61f6",
        "published_at": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.882609,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "source_locator": "Recent Economic and Financial Developments, Inflation",
        "stance": "opposes",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "temporal_class": "current_state",
        "text": "Core PCE prices rose 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending in May.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm"
      },
      {
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 89,
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        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:bea.gov",
        "name": "BEA — Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bea",
        "passage_id": "passage:bea-pce-next-release",
        "passage_sha256": "bcec80e6b8daaa922e9ec32892cb755b9fe955c3a4faed2c33d092305d75092e",
        "published_at": "2026-06-25T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.863043,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "bea-pce-index-june-2026",
        "source_locator": "Current Release",
        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:bea-pce-index-june-2026",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "text": "The PCE price index current release was June 25, 2026; the next release is July 30, 2026.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index"
      }
    ],
    "what_changed_status": "passage_backfill_added_after_forecast_lock"
  },
  "hypothesis": {
    "category": "central_banks_fx",
    "claim": "June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.",
    "horizon_seconds": 557901,
    "horizon_status": "exact_timestamp",
    "hypothesis_id": "hyp_2abab6df0454403e95f0588c",
    "published_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.194794+00:00",
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if BEA reports June 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.3% year over year or lower, using the one-decimal figure in the Personal Income and Outlays release; FALSE at 3.4% or higher.",
    "resolver": {
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      "kind": "news_llm",
      "news_query": "BEA June 2026 core PCE year over year July 30",
      "question": "Did BEA report June 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.3% year over year or lower in the July 30, 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release?"
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T12:30:00+00:00",
    "scheduled_certain": false,
    "title": "Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower"
  },
  "lanes": {
    "combined": {
      "learned_market_weight": null,
      "limitation": "production scalar withheld; alpha is sensitivity only until matched, prequential model-versus-market resolutions pass the registered gate",
      "production_probability": null,
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        {
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        {
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        {
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      ],
      "status": "withheld_unlearned_market_weight"
    },
    "human": {
      "limitation": "No separately frozen analyst estimate exists apart from the published MacroGuru call.",
      "probability": null,
      "rationale_reference": null,
      "status": "not_separately_submitted"
    },
    "market": {
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      "executable_probability_interval": [
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      "fees": null,
      "history_observation_count": 3,
      "history_receipt_sha256": "5850c4f16e32016d29e73f2e11eebfa5ab1a4e0c0ff623aac4eb457562182827",
      "history_status": "history_available",
      "history_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/june-core-pce-cools.json",
      "latest_observation": {
        "capture_kind": "tls_verified_public_clob_top_of_book",
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        "execution_status": "top_of_book_only_depth_and_fees_not_costed",
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        "observed_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:53.051000Z",
        "original_decision_eligibility": "captured_after_publication_not_eligible",
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        "spread": 0.01,
        "top_ask_size": 6.93,
        "top_bid_size": 5.02,
        "yes_ask": 0.77,
        "yes_bid": 0.76
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      "limitation": "The executable probability interval is frozen, but depth, fees, and position limits are not represented as belief.",
      "liquidity": null,
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      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/core-pce-yoy-june-2026-20260702040039732",
      "status": "executable_interval_measured",
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    },
    "narrative": {
      "agreement_index": null,
      "agreement_index_90_interval": null,
      "agreement_probability": null,
      "disagreement_probability": null,
      "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
      "limitation": "The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.",
      "method_version": "registered-concept-evidence-v1",
      "opposing_passages": [],
      "public_claims": [
        {
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          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "pce-prior-reading",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "The Fed's July report recorded May core PCE inflation at 3.4% year over year."
        },
        {
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          ],
          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "pce-release-date",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "BEA scheduled the next PCE release for July 30, 2026."
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      ],
      "retrospective_passages": [
        {
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          "temporal_class": "current_state",
          "text": "Core PCE prices rose 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending in May.",
          "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
          "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm"
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          "host_cluster_id": "host:bea.gov",
          "name": "BEA — Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index",
          "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bea",
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          "relevance_status": "verified",
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          "source_id": "bea-pce-index-june-2026",
          "source_locator": "Current Release",
          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:bea-pce-index-june-2026",
          "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
          "text": "The PCE price index current release was June 25, 2026; the next release is July 30, 2026.",
          "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
          "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index"
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      ],
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      "stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/june-core-pce-cools.json",
      "status": "abstained_no_prepublication_directional_passages",
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    },
    "statistical_model": {
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      "method_version": "adversarial-probability-certificate-v2.1.0",
      "predicted_value": {
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        ],
        "mom_pct": 0.153434459308,
        "yoy_pct": 3.29888806254
      },
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      "probability_interval": [
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      ],
      "scalar_publishable": false,
      "status": "withheld_specification_instability"
    }
  },
  "public_url": "https://macroguru.app/decision-receipts/june-core-pce-cools",
  "publication_integrity": {
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    "chain_entry_sha256": "1fe2eac5ed25f79f5f387a621183ecddcaa77aaf047735b2894fcb3c33102ee1",
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    "chain_url": "/data/predictions_chain.jsonl",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_sha256": "5850c4f16e32016d29e73f2e11eebfa5ab1a4e0c0ff623aac4eb457562182827",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/june-core-pce-cools.json",
    "ledger_id": "2026-07-24__june-core-pce-cools",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_sha256": "bdb84536bb9aa1d5e5a2012f6d6e61c98d597db6f4815cf068026b6951efad6f",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/june-core-pce-cools.json",
    "scientific_receipt_sha256": "f3ee1ca6956ba35f9cae7e9e3de52c58654eddb3c0a6546738f7aea4b6aeadf1",
    "scientific_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-receipts/june-core-pce-cools.json"
  },
  "published_forecast": {
    "basis": "crowd",
    "basis_label": "Prediction-market crowd",
    "honesty_note": "This is the immutable published call. It is not silently relabeled as a narrative-only, model-only, or market-only estimate.",
    "probability": 0.78,
    "rationale_summary": "The crowd gives the ≤3.3% bucket about 77%. June CPI cooled sharply, while the Fed's own report still flags elevated core PCE and upside energy risk.",
    "status": "frozen_for_scoring"
  },
  "receipt_id": "2026-07-24__june-core-pce-cools",
  "receipt_sha256": "0eed659c1b1e6c38d335fd2d219e1a73d96b20dec18628b446edb3a79e3ac579",
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  "resolution": {
    "evidence": {
      "basis": "official_source",
      "note": "BEA reported June core PCE inflation of 3.3% year over year, meeting the 3.3%-or-lower rule.",
      "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026",
      "urls": [
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    },
    "outcome": true,
    "resolved_on": "2026-07-30",
    "status": "resolved"
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  "scoring_contract": {
    "benchmarks": [
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    ],
    "outcome_domain": "binary",
    "primary_score": "brier",
    "primary_score_formula": "(published_probability - binary_outcome)^2",
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if BEA reports June 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.3% year over year or lower, using the one-decimal figure in the Personal Income and Outlays release; FALSE at 3.4% or higher.",
    "resolver": {
      "gdelt_query": "(core PCE OR personal consumption expenditures) AND inflation",
      "kind": "news_llm",
      "news_query": "BEA June 2026 core PCE year over year July 30",
      "question": "Did BEA report June 2026 core PCE inflation at 3.3% year over year or lower in the July 30, 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release?"
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T12:30:00+00:00",
    "secondary_scores": [
      "log_score",
      "hit_rate"
    ],
    "status": "registered"
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "data": "Passage spans are frozen retrospectively; none were captured before the current forecast lock.",
    "market": "The executable probability interval is frozen, but depth, fees, and position limits are not represented as belief.",
    "model": null,
    "narrative": "The stage pipeline abstained from a narrative score to prevent hindsight.",
    "source": "Lineage is registered, but effective original-decision breadth is zero because all captured spans are post-lock.",
    "specification": null
  }
}