{
  "causal_cascade": {
    "conditional_asset_watchlist": [
      {
        "dir": "up",
        "name": "10Y Treasury yield",
        "sym": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "dir": "up",
        "name": "US dollar",
        "sym": "DXY"
      },
      {
        "dir": "flat",
        "name": "S&P 500",
        "sym": "SPX"
      },
      {
        "dir": "down",
        "name": "Gold",
        "sym": "XAU"
      }
    ],
    "first_order_edges": [],
    "limitation": "The asset list is a conditional watchlist. Causal edge order and expected move ranges are not claimed by this receipt unless separately measured.",
    "scenario": {
      "id": 7402,
      "scenario_probability_pct": 34,
      "stance": "RISK-ON",
      "title": "Soft-landing oil glut, disinflation without recession",
      "url": "/scenario/what-if-soft-landing-oil-glut-disinflation-without-recession"
    },
    "second_order_edges": [],
    "status": "linked_scenario_and_conditional_watchlist"
  },
  "data_url": "https://macroguru.app/data/decision-receipts/us-q2-gdp-positive.json",
  "decision": {
    "activation_condition": null,
    "activation_status": "not_registered",
    "claimed_edge": "The useful line is zero, not whether the first estimate lands at 1.4% or 1.9%.",
    "invalidation_status": "bound_to_false_resolution_not_separately_registered",
    "next_proof_points": [
      {
        "due_at": "2026-07-30T12:30:00+00:00",
        "question": "Did BEA's July 30, 2026 advance estimate report annualized real U.S. GDP growth above 0.0% for the second quarter of 2026?",
        "type": "registered_resolver"
      }
    ],
    "now_what": "A positive print protects the soft-landing narrative; a negative print would reopen recession pricing immediately.",
    "research_boundary": "Scenario-conditional research framing only; not personalized investment advice.",
    "status": "research_monitor_only"
  },
  "decision_snapshot_sha256": "ebe26bef095c794edac4d2bbfb4fad7b38a346911d7fa68f82a1b407f48e8740",
  "divergence": {
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    "history_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/us-q2-gdp-positive.json",
    "interpretation": "No matched market lane is available for comparison.",
    "published_minus_market_probability_points": null,
    "range_overlap": null,
    "shadow_history": {
      "edge_status": "not_measured",
      "model_range_vs_executable_interval": null,
      "published_minus_latest_midpoint_points": null,
      "published_vs_executable_interval": null,
      "status": "not_available"
    },
    "status": "not_measured"
  },
  "evidence": {
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    "evidence_snapshot_sha256": "a36d0afaf2ad79c664ff06d19c391a2100d80639321937c7aa5110d376b00b74",
    "limitation": "Short claim-to-span citations are frozen and lineage-clustered, but captured_at is after the forecast lock. They cannot be treated as evidence used by the original decision.",
    "source_clusters": [
      {
        "cluster_id": "host:d6c6b89b2b6c",
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        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      },
      {
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        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      },
      {
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        "host": "www.philadelphiafed.org",
        "lineage_status": "host_only_pending_common_origin_analysis",
        "source_count": 1
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:d6c6b89b2b6c",
        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "Atlanta Fed — GDPNow",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:atlanta-fed",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "external_research_source",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:gdpnow-q2-2026",
        "url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow"
      },
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:23c7c5141c45",
        "independence_status": "not_verified",
        "name": "BEA — release schedule",
        "origin_cluster_id": null,
        "passage_status": "not_frozen",
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "syndication_cluster_id": null,
        "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule"
      },
      {
        "host_cluster_id": "host:71c27e077d89",
        "independence_status": "lineage_clustered_not_decision_eligible",
        "name": "Philadelphia Fed — Q2 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:philadelphia-fed",
        "passage_status": "frozen_retrospective_not_decision_eligible",
        "source_class": "external_research_source",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:spf-q2-2026",
        "url": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026"
      }
    ],
    "status": "retrospective_passages_verified_not_decision_eligible",
    "verified_passages": [
      {
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 65,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:atlantafed.org",
        "name": "Atlanta Fed — GDPNow",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:atlanta-fed",
        "passage_id": "passage:gdpnow-q2-1-7",
        "passage_sha256": "dced3fe0e737c2a3ea9f0a26733d13bf6d8a34aba47b476cbdad05967427dd97",
        "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.863636,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "atlanta-fed-gdpnow-q2-2026",
        "source_locator": "GDPNow current estimate",
        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:gdpnow-q2-2026",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "text": "Latest GDPNow Estimate for 2026:Q2: 1.7%. Updated: July 17, 2026.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow"
      },
      {
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        "char_start": 0,
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        "host_cluster_id": "host:philadelphiafed.org",
        "name": "Philadelphia Fed — Q2 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:philadelphia-fed",
        "passage_id": "passage:spf-q2-growth-2-1",
        "passage_sha256": "c244481c738d7dd17e9e03b4015041e2fa03faed05cfbd3dbdd48efbde612f00",
        "published_at": "2026-05-15T00:00:00Z",
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.863636,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "philadelphia-fed-spf-q2-2026",
        "source_locator": "Forecasters See Lower Growth in 2026",
        "stance": "supports",
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:spf-q2-2026",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "text": "The forecasters predict the economy will grow at an annual rate of 2.1 percent this quarter.",
        "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
        "url": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026"
      }
    ],
    "what_changed_status": "passage_backfill_added_after_forecast_lock"
  },
  "hypothesis": {
    "category": "sovereign_fiscal",
    "claim": "Advance Q2 real GDP prints above zero. Growth is slower, but the first estimate does not show a recession quarter.",
    "horizon_seconds": 557901,
    "horizon_status": "exact_timestamp",
    "hypothesis_id": "hyp_4cebd175f83c14f76740cee3",
    "published_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.194794+00:00",
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if BEA's advance estimate reports annualized real U.S. GDP growth above 0.0% for Q2 2026; FALSE if it reports 0.0% or a contraction.",
    "resolver": {
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      "kind": "news_llm",
      "news_query": "BEA advance estimate second quarter 2026 real GDP July 30",
      "question": "Did BEA's July 30, 2026 advance estimate report annualized real U.S. GDP growth above 0.0% for the second quarter of 2026?"
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T12:30:00+00:00",
    "scheduled_certain": false,
    "title": "The U.S. dodges a Q2 contraction"
  },
  "lanes": {
    "combined": {
      "learned_market_weight": null,
      "limitation": "No combined estimate is published until weights are learned on prior matched, prequential resolutions.",
      "production_probability": null,
      "sensitivity_only": [],
      "status": "withheld_no_performance_learned_weight"
    },
    "human": {
      "limitation": "No separately frozen analyst estimate exists apart from the published MacroGuru call.",
      "probability": null,
      "rationale_reference": null,
      "status": "not_separately_submitted"
    },
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      "history_status": "no_matched_market_contract",
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      "latest_observation": null,
      "limitation": "No matched prediction-market measurement is registered.",
      "liquidity": null,
      "probability": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "status": "not_available",
      "underlying_event_family_count": 0,
      "unresolved_weight_eligibility": false
    },
    "narrative": {
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      "agreement_index_90_interval": null,
      "agreement_probability": null,
      "disagreement_probability": null,
      "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
      "limitation": "The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.",
      "method_version": "registered-concept-evidence-v1",
      "opposing_passages": [],
      "public_claims": [
        {
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          ],
          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "gdpnow-positive-q2",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "GDPNow's July 17 Q2 estimate was positive at 1.7% annualized."
        },
        {
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          ],
          "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
          "claim_id": "spf-positive-q2",
          "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
          "text": "The Q2 Survey of Professional Forecasters expected positive 2.1% annualized growth for the quarter."
        }
      ],
      "retrospective_passages": [
        {
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          "source_id": "atlanta-fed-gdpnow-q2-2026",
          "source_locator": "GDPNow current estimate",
          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:gdpnow-q2-2026",
          "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
          "text": "Latest GDPNow Estimate for 2026:Q2: 1.7%. Updated: July 17, 2026.",
          "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
          "url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow"
        },
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          "source_class": "official_public_authority",
          "source_id": "philadelphia-fed-spf-q2-2026",
          "source_locator": "Forecasters See Lower Growth in 2026",
          "stance": "supports",
          "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:spf-q2-2026",
          "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
          "text": "The forecasters predict the economy will grow at an annual rate of 2.1 percent this quarter.",
          "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
          "url": "https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026"
        }
      ],
      "stage_receipt_sha256": "318ecef3fe8e4a6ff816ae1b70fc559816239bde11b8c887fe697f3ac547929a",
      "stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/us-q2-gdp-positive.json",
      "status": "abstained_no_prepublication_directional_passages",
      "supporting_passages": []
    },
    "statistical_model": {
      "limitation": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.",
      "method_version": null,
      "probability": null,
      "probability_interval": null,
      "scalar_publishable": false,
      "status": "not_independently_measured"
    }
  },
  "public_url": "https://macroguru.app/decision-receipts/us-q2-gdp-positive",
  "publication_integrity": {
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    "chain_entry_sha256": "84288472575f4ba853d23cebe75de6b9ce8831d343ca74a9ba760bd14b6d5dba",
    "chain_sequence": 23,
    "chain_url": "/data/predictions_chain.jsonl",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_sha256": "6e691d8637ceb400207bb33c3b519a0ea43700c0da6afadd9ae92806d818b5ea",
    "forecast_divergence_receipt_url": "/data/forecast-divergence/us-q2-gdp-positive.json",
    "ledger_id": "2026-07-24__us-q2-gdp-positive",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_sha256": "318ecef3fe8e4a6ff816ae1b70fc559816239bde11b8c887fe697f3ac547929a",
    "narrative_stage_receipt_url": "/data/narrative-evidence/us-q2-gdp-positive.json",
    "scientific_receipt_sha256": null,
    "scientific_receipt_url": null
  },
  "published_forecast": {
    "basis": "consensus",
    "basis_label": "Analyst consensus",
    "honesty_note": "This is the immutable published call. It is not silently relabeled as a narrative-only, model-only, or market-only estimate.",
    "probability": 0.86,
    "rationale_summary": "Atlanta Fed GDPNow stood at 1.7% annualized on July 17. Its pre-release error is meaningful, so the call is positive growth rather than an over-precise decimal forecast.",
    "status": "frozen_for_scoring"
  },
  "receipt_id": "2026-07-24__us-q2-gdp-positive",
  "receipt_sha256": "12d38e19836ad2c21643df866f42a3b1695029bc423b87bb74b476944dab4086",
  "receipt_version": 3,
  "resolution": {
    "evidence": {
      "basis": "official_source",
      "note": "BEA advance estimate reported Q2 real GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, above 0.0%.",
      "url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026",
      "urls": [
        "https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026"
      ]
    },
    "outcome": true,
    "resolved_on": "2026-07-30",
    "status": "resolved"
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  "schema_version": "1.2.0",
  "scoring_contract": {
    "benchmarks": [
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    ],
    "outcome_domain": "binary",
    "primary_score": "brier",
    "primary_score_formula": "(published_probability - binary_outcome)^2",
    "resolution_criteria": "TRUE if BEA's advance estimate reports annualized real U.S. GDP growth above 0.0% for Q2 2026; FALSE if it reports 0.0% or a contraction.",
    "resolver": {
      "gdelt_query": "(US GDP OR gross domestic product) AND (second quarter OR Q2)",
      "kind": "news_llm",
      "news_query": "BEA advance estimate second quarter 2026 real GDP July 30",
      "question": "Did BEA's July 30, 2026 advance estimate report annualized real U.S. GDP growth above 0.0% for the second quarter of 2026?"
    },
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T12:30:00+00:00",
    "secondary_scores": [
      "log_score",
      "hit_rate"
    ],
    "status": "registered"
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "data": "Passage spans are frozen retrospectively; none were captured before the current forecast lock.",
    "market": "No matched prediction-market measurement is registered.",
    "model": "The published forecast is not relabeled as a statistical-model output. A separate frozen model receipt is unavailable for this claim.",
    "narrative": "The stage pipeline abstained from a narrative score to prevent hindsight.",
    "source": "Lineage is registered, but effective original-decision breadth is zero because all captured spans are post-lock.",
    "specification": "No separate model specification receipt."
  }
}