{
  "combined_probability": null,
  "combined_weight": null,
  "divergence": {
    "edge_status": "withheld_shared_input_and_unverified_costs",
    "model_range_vs_executable_interval": null,
    "published_minus_latest_midpoint_points": -0.25,
    "published_vs_executable_interval": "published_inside_live_spread",
    "status": "descriptive_only_published_call_used_market_input"
  },
  "divergence_receipt_sha256": "f97ec19af32cfe2bcfa065ce64d059c473b39545795bf55826426324232225ff",
  "forecast_id": "boe-holds-july",
  "hypothesis_id": "hyp_3a917ffc0c57624afc8d2b04",
  "limitation": "Narrative, published forecast, model, and market remain separate. Current unresolved rows are excluded from all weight fitting.",
  "market": {
    "contract_cluster_count": 1,
    "fee_status": "not_verified_for_cost_adjustment",
    "latest_observation": {
      "capture_kind": "tls_verified_public_clob_top_of_book",
      "captured_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:58.243347Z",
      "claim_alignment": "exact_binary_claim",
      "contract_cluster_id": "contract-family:boe-2026-07-no-change",
      "execution_status": "top_of_book_only_depth_and_fees_not_costed",
      "fee_status": "not_verified_for_cost_adjustment",
      "forecast_id": "boe-holds-july",
      "gamma_best_ask": 0.979,
      "gamma_best_bid": 0.966,
      "market_id": "2125725",
      "method_version": "shadow-narrative-market-divergence-v1",
      "midpoint": 0.9725,
      "observation_id": "marketobs_cbf0c24e8f5417862fd6b6d0",
      "observation_sha256": "e14f20c7980112b3bfce82058b6bec0540e556a9de9937308d20412d74034637",
      "observed_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:55.522000Z",
      "original_decision_eligibility": "captured_after_publication_not_eligible",
      "point_probability": null,
      "provider": "polymarket",
      "question": "No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?",
      "schema_version": "1.0.0",
      "source_anchor": {
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:58.243347Z",
        "clob_book_hash": "9c8d487bcd20ac46963d521e6f22eef48a0dcf82",
        "clob_raw_sha256": "1f1d322a641c23cf01b8310fddfce7d716079b150299c81ea89353ffb38352ef",
        "clob_url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/book?token_id=21506859447771938336306318830863642311379933924645571330096901457803446205627",
        "gamma_raw_sha256": "844e318947ae45d949bb1f9f649e75fbdd68222d4543f1cf9d2d4e14386d13b4",
        "gamma_url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/bank-of-england-decision-in-july",
        "tls_policy": "system_trust_store_verification_required_no_bypass"
      },
      "source_receipt_sha256": "adf86b91da3ebca684e6c486f85ca0d38118705b65a2a715055080f4a1ee7b82",
      "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-england-decision-in-july",
      "spread": 0.013,
      "top_ask_size": 54.9,
      "top_bid_size": 36.0,
      "underlying_event_id": "event:boe-2026-07-rate-decision",
      "yes_ask": 0.979,
      "yes_bid": 0.966,
      "yes_token_id": "21506859447771938336306318830863642311379933924645571330096901457803446205627"
    },
    "observation_count": 2,
    "observations": [
      {
        "capture_kind": "chain_anchored_publication_point",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.285468+00:00",
        "claim_alignment": "exact_binary_claim",
        "contract_cluster_id": "contract-family:boe-2026-07-no-change",
        "execution_status": "not_executable_point_only",
        "fee_status": "not_verified_for_cost_adjustment",
        "forecast_id": "boe-holds-july",
        "market_id": "2125725",
        "method_version": "shadow-narrative-market-divergence-v1",
        "midpoint": 0.98,
        "observation_id": "marketobs_5eb195125275ed84e1e5ec69",
        "observation_sha256": "fd14ada6af527936140b46fdebe75dad943375fb9fd9c05cf3bf2363de530224",
        "observed_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.194794+00:00",
        "original_decision_eligibility": "included_in_atomic_publication_payload",
        "point_probability": 0.98,
        "provider": "polymarket",
        "question": "No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?",
        "schema_version": "1.0.0",
        "source_anchor": {
          "artifact": "config/predictions_chain.jsonl",
          "entry_hash": "d272793b119c4e8d565983911e8afc4d90633e593cd1367265babc61e2f637db",
          "payload_body_sha256": "d359ff8a38ba9f7ec8ab1baf02b8578731672118aab82dc0fec1379d0caf1850",
          "sequence": 18
        },
        "source_receipt_sha256": "d272793b119c4e8d565983911e8afc4d90633e593cd1367265babc61e2f637db",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-england-decision-in-july",
        "spread": null,
        "top_ask_size": null,
        "top_bid_size": null,
        "underlying_event_id": "event:boe-2026-07-rate-decision",
        "yes_ask": null,
        "yes_bid": null,
        "yes_token_id": "21506859447771938336306318830863642311379933924645571330096901457803446205627"
      },
      {
        "capture_kind": "tls_verified_public_clob_top_of_book",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:58.243347Z",
        "claim_alignment": "exact_binary_claim",
        "contract_cluster_id": "contract-family:boe-2026-07-no-change",
        "execution_status": "top_of_book_only_depth_and_fees_not_costed",
        "fee_status": "not_verified_for_cost_adjustment",
        "forecast_id": "boe-holds-july",
        "gamma_best_ask": 0.979,
        "gamma_best_bid": 0.966,
        "market_id": "2125725",
        "method_version": "shadow-narrative-market-divergence-v1",
        "midpoint": 0.9725,
        "observation_id": "marketobs_cbf0c24e8f5417862fd6b6d0",
        "observation_sha256": "e14f20c7980112b3bfce82058b6bec0540e556a9de9937308d20412d74034637",
        "observed_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:55.522000Z",
        "original_decision_eligibility": "captured_after_publication_not_eligible",
        "point_probability": null,
        "provider": "polymarket",
        "question": "No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?",
        "schema_version": "1.0.0",
        "source_anchor": {
          "captured_at": "2026-07-24T10:21:58.243347Z",
          "clob_book_hash": "9c8d487bcd20ac46963d521e6f22eef48a0dcf82",
          "clob_raw_sha256": "1f1d322a641c23cf01b8310fddfce7d716079b150299c81ea89353ffb38352ef",
          "clob_url": "https://clob.polymarket.com/book?token_id=21506859447771938336306318830863642311379933924645571330096901457803446205627",
          "gamma_raw_sha256": "844e318947ae45d949bb1f9f649e75fbdd68222d4543f1cf9d2d4e14386d13b4",
          "gamma_url": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/bank-of-england-decision-in-july",
          "tls_policy": "system_trust_store_verification_required_no_bypass"
        },
        "source_receipt_sha256": "adf86b91da3ebca684e6c486f85ca0d38118705b65a2a715055080f4a1ee7b82",
        "source_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-england-decision-in-july",
        "spread": 0.013,
        "top_ask_size": 54.9,
        "top_bid_size": 36.0,
        "underlying_event_id": "event:boe-2026-07-rate-decision",
        "yes_ask": 0.979,
        "yes_bid": 0.966,
        "yes_token_id": "21506859447771938336306318830863642311379933924645571330096901457803446205627"
      }
    ],
    "status": "history_available",
    "underlying_event_family_count": 1
  },
  "method_version": "shadow-narrative-market-divergence-v1",
  "narrative_agreement": {
    "agreement_probability": null,
    "disagreement_probability": null,
    "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
    "index": null,
    "limitation": "No index is computed until the registered minimum independent pre-publication directional evidence is admitted.",
    "mixed_origin_count": 0,
    "opposing_origin_count": 0,
    "signed_90_interval": null,
    "status": "abstained_no_prepublication_directional_passages",
    "supporting_origin_count": 0
  },
  "promotion_status": "shadow_only_unresolved_and_unlearned",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.194794+00:00",
  "resolution_status": "resolved",
  "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T11:00:00+00:00",
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "unresolved_weight_eligibility": false
}
