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      "resolves_at": "2026-07-30T12:30:00+00:00",
      "schema_version": "1.0.0",
      "unresolved_weight_eligibility": false
    }
  ],
  "matched_market_forecast_count": 4,
  "method_version": "shadow-narrative-market-divergence-v1",
  "narrative_index_available_count": 0,
  "promotion_policy": {
    "calibration_rule": "Calibration intercept and slope must be reported by domain and horizon; no promotion on proper-score improvement alone.",
    "cost_policy": "No cost-adjusted edge or ensemble promotion without executable bid/ask, verified fee rules, and event-family clustering.",
    "eligibility_gate_not_proof": true,
    "minimum_matched_resolved_event_families": 30,
    "minimum_matched_resolved_event_families_per_domain": 10,
    "proper_scores": [
      "brier",
      "log_loss"
    ],
    "required_comparators": [
      "prequential_jeffreys_climatology",
      "fixed_50_50",
      "market_only",
      "published_macroguru"
    ],
    "required_temporal_holdout_windows": 2,
    "superiority_rule": "After verified costs, the paired 95% interval for score improvement must exclude zero against every required comparator.",
    "uncertainty_method": "paired_underlying-event-family_cluster_bootstrap_95_interval",
    "unresolved_policy": "Current unresolved events may be displayed and replayed but never fit a weight.",
    "weight_fit_policy": "Prequential only: each weight may use earlier resolved event families, never the row being predicted or any unresolved row."
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "status": "shadow_only_no_weight_fitted",
  "unresolved_rows_used_for_weight_fitting": 0
}