{
  "cost_adjustment": {
    "cost_adjusted_brier": null,
    "cost_adjusted_log_loss": null,
    "status": "not_computable_historical_points_lack_executable_quotes_and_fees"
  },
  "current_unresolved_excluded_count": 0,
  "current_unresolved_ids": [],
  "domain_gate_status": {
    "asia_macro": "insufficient_matched_resolved_event_families",
    "central_banks_fx": "insufficient_matched_resolved_event_families",
    "crypto_markets": "insufficient_matched_resolved_event_families"
  },
  "evaluation_sha256": "45a75198bfd673893aa26f767dda05a3f2dc26014f08a02a2538884efb72eeba",
  "evaluation_status": "insufficient_matched_resolved_event_families",
  "market_resolved_matched_count": 6,
  "market_resolved_matched_event_family_count_by_domain": {
    "asia_macro": 1,
    "central_banks_fx": 4,
    "crypto_markets": 1
  },
  "method_version": "shadow-narrative-market-divergence-v1",
  "minimum_matched_resolved_event_families": 30,
  "minimum_matched_resolved_event_families_per_domain": 10,
  "narrative_resolved_matched_count": 0,
  "negative_result": "Only 6 resolved event families have matched crowd points, none have a matched narrative index, and historical points lack executable quotes and verified fees. No weight or cost-adjusted edge is admissible.",
  "paired_replay": {
    "matched_event_family_count": 6,
    "mean_market_minus_macroguru_brier": 0.010317,
    "mean_market_minus_macroguru_log_loss": 0.034629,
    "rows": [
      {
        "cost_status": "unavailable_historical_point_has_no_bid_ask_or_verified_fee",
        "domain": "crypto_markets",
        "executable_cost_adjustment": null,
        "forecast_id": "2026-06-29__bitcoin-range-bound",
        "market_minus_macroguru_brier": 0.0144,
        "market_minus_macroguru_log_loss": 0.04879,
        "market_point_brier": 0.04,
        "market_point_log_loss": 0.223144,
        "market_point_probability": 0.8,
        "outcome": true,
        "published_macroguru_brier": 0.0256,
        "published_macroguru_log_loss": 0.174353,
        "published_macroguru_probability": 0.84,
        "underlying_event_id": "legacy:2026-06-29__bitcoin-range-bound"
      },
      {
        "cost_status": "unavailable_historical_point_has_no_bid_ask_or_verified_fee",
        "domain": "central_banks_fx",
        "executable_cost_adjustment": null,
        "forecast_id": "2026-06-29__fed-no-cuts-higher-for-longer",
        "market_minus_macroguru_brier": 0.0429,
        "market_minus_macroguru_log_loss": 0.156004,
        "market_point_brier": 0.0529,
        "market_point_log_loss": 0.261365,
        "market_point_probability": 0.77,
        "outcome": true,
        "published_macroguru_brier": 0.01,
        "published_macroguru_log_loss": 0.105361,
        "published_macroguru_probability": 0.9,
        "underlying_event_id": "legacy:2026-06-29__fed-no-cuts-higher-for-longer"
      },
      {
        "cost_status": "unavailable_historical_point_has_no_bid_ask_or_verified_fee",
        "domain": "central_banks_fx",
        "executable_cost_adjustment": null,
        "forecast_id": "2026-07-24__fed-holds-july",
        "market_minus_macroguru_brier": 0.0013,
        "market_minus_macroguru_log_loss": 0.010695,
        "market_point_brier": 0.0049,
        "market_point_log_loss": 0.072571,
        "market_point_probability": 0.93,
        "outcome": true,
        "published_macroguru_brier": 0.0036,
        "published_macroguru_log_loss": 0.061875,
        "published_macroguru_probability": 0.94,
        "underlying_event_id": "legacy:2026-07-24__fed-holds-july"
      },
      {
        "cost_status": "unavailable_historical_point_has_no_bid_ask_or_verified_fee",
        "domain": "central_banks_fx",
        "executable_cost_adjustment": null,
        "forecast_id": "2026-07-24__boe-holds-july",
        "market_minus_macroguru_brier": -0.0005,
        "market_minus_macroguru_log_loss": -0.010257,
        "market_point_brier": 0.0004,
        "market_point_log_loss": 0.020203,
        "market_point_probability": 0.98,
        "outcome": true,
        "published_macroguru_brier": 0.0009,
        "published_macroguru_log_loss": 0.030459,
        "published_macroguru_probability": 0.97,
        "underlying_event_id": "legacy:2026-07-24__boe-holds-july"
      },
      {
        "cost_status": "unavailable_historical_point_has_no_bid_ask_or_verified_fee",
        "domain": "central_banks_fx",
        "executable_cost_adjustment": null,
        "forecast_id": "2026-07-24__june-core-pce-cools",
        "market_minus_macroguru_brier": 0.0045,
        "market_minus_macroguru_log_loss": 0.012903,
        "market_point_brier": 0.0529,
        "market_point_log_loss": 0.261365,
        "market_point_probability": 0.77,
        "outcome": true,
        "published_macroguru_brier": 0.0484,
        "published_macroguru_log_loss": 0.248461,
        "published_macroguru_probability": 0.78,
        "underlying_event_id": "legacy:2026-07-24__june-core-pce-cools"
      },
      {
        "cost_status": "unavailable_historical_point_has_no_bid_ask_or_verified_fee",
        "domain": "asia_macro",
        "executable_cost_adjustment": null,
        "forecast_id": "2026-07-24__boj-holds-july",
        "market_minus_macroguru_brier": -0.0007,
        "market_minus_macroguru_log_loss": -0.010363,
        "market_point_brier": 0.0009,
        "market_point_log_loss": 0.030459,
        "market_point_probability": 0.97,
        "outcome": true,
        "published_macroguru_brier": 0.0016,
        "published_macroguru_log_loss": 0.040822,
        "published_macroguru_probability": 0.96,
        "underlying_event_id": "legacy:2026-07-24__boj-holds-july"
      }
    ],
    "statistical_claim_status": "withheld_insufficient_event_families",
    "unit_of_analysis": "underlying_event_family"
  },
  "resolved_event_family_count": 15,
  "resolved_event_family_count_by_domain": {
    "asia_macro": 1,
    "central_banks_fx": 6,
    "crypto_markets": 1,
    "markets_corporate": 3,
    "oil_gas": 3,
    "sovereign_fiscal": 1
  },
  "resolved_event_forecast_count": 15,
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "scores": {
    "combined": {
      "brier": null,
      "log_loss": null,
      "n": 0
    },
    "fixed_50_50_all_resolved": {
      "brier": 0.25,
      "log_loss": 0.693147,
      "n": 15
    },
    "market_point_market_matched": {
      "brier": 0.025333,
      "log_loss": 0.144851,
      "n": 6
    },
    "narrative_only": {
      "brier": null,
      "log_loss": null,
      "n": 0
    },
    "prequential_jeffreys_climatology_all_resolved": {
      "brier": 0.202005,
      "log_loss": 0.607245,
      "n": 15
    },
    "published_macroguru_all_resolved": {
      "brier": 0.106593,
      "log_loss": 0.337301,
      "n": 15
    },
    "published_macroguru_market_matched": {
      "brier": 0.015017,
      "log_loss": 0.110222,
      "n": 6
    }
  },
  "weight_fit": {
    "market_weight": null,
    "model_weight": null,
    "narrative_weight": null,
    "status": "withheld",
    "unresolved_rows_used": 0
  }
}