{
  "admitted_passages": [],
  "agreement_probability": null,
  "disagreement_probability": null,
  "effective_independent_source_count": 0,
  "evidence_pipeline_sha256": "625d920495e9dfd9d31f5540c1305756e91af051d8fcec060659b71aa0e7e374",
  "forecast_id": "boe-holds-july",
  "forecast_published_at": "2026-07-24T01:31:38.194794+00:00",
  "hypothesis_id": "hyp_3a917ffc0c57624afc8d2b04",
  "limitation": "The current source spans were frozen after the forecast lock, so they are published as retrospective citations but cannot influence or score the original decision. No narrative probability is inferred.",
  "method_version": "registered-concept-evidence-v1",
  "public_claims": [
    {
      "citation_passage_ids": [
        "passage:boe-june-hold"
      ],
      "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
      "claim_id": "boe-prior-hold",
      "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
      "text": "At its June meeting, the MPC voted 7-2 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%."
    },
    {
      "citation_passage_ids": [
        "passage:boe-labour-loosens"
      ],
      "citation_status": "verified_retrospective_span",
      "claim_id": "boe-labour-balance",
      "missing_citation_passage_ids": [],
      "text": "The June minutes said a loosening labour market could contain inflationary pressure."
    }
  ],
  "retrieval": {
    "candidate_count": 17,
    "passages": [
      {
        "aspect_matches": [
          "policy decision"
        ],
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 88,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "entity_matches": [
          "Bank of England"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk",
        "name": "Bank of England — June 2026 MPC minutes",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england",
        "passage_id": "passage:boe-june-hold",
        "passage_sha256": "55c282228365a53179a5a9698668df2eedef1378aa8e54eec839f9c28b9fa7da",
        "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00Z",
        "query_token_overlap": 0.238095,
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.885714,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "boe-minutes-june-2026",
        "source_locator": "Page 2, Monetary Policy Summary",
        "stance": "supports",
        "stance_markers": {
          "opposes": [],
          "supports": [
            "maintain Bank Rate at 3.75"
          ]
        },
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-minutes-june-2026",
        "temporal_class": "current_state",
        "temporal_markers": [
          "voted"
        ],
        "text": "The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-june-2026.pdf"
      },
      {
        "aspect_matches": [
          "policy decision"
        ],
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 115,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock",
          "stance_classifier_abstained"
        ],
        "entity_matches": [
          "Bank of England"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk",
        "name": "Bank of England — upcoming events",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england",
        "passage_id": "passage:boe-july-meeting",
        "passage_sha256": "adcbf141dae0675c769c25685ed12bb67007d8d25022664cf6569d4fda6446c3",
        "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00Z",
        "query_token_overlap": 0.142857,
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.871429,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "boe-upcoming-events-july-2026",
        "source_locator": "27 to 31 July, Thursday 30 July",
        "stance": "abstain",
        "stance_markers": {
          "opposes": [],
          "supports": []
        },
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-upcoming-events-july-2026",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "temporal_markers": [
          "Thursday 30 July"
        ],
        "text": "Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting - July 2026. Thursday 30 July at 12pm.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/upcoming-events"
      },
      {
        "aspect_matches": [
          "labour inflation balance"
        ],
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 109,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock"
        ],
        "entity_matches": [
          "Bank of England"
        ],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk",
        "name": "Bank of England — June 2026 MPC minutes",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england",
        "passage_id": "passage:boe-labour-loosens",
        "passage_sha256": "15c19dbc6d42d70ed673bfe20d11e618c1ab2a6403456315ce729bfea782ac70",
        "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00Z",
        "query_token_overlap": 0.142857,
        "relevance_status": "verified",
        "retrieval_score": 0.871429,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "boe-minutes-june-2026",
        "source_locator": "Page 2, Monetary Policy Summary",
        "stance": "supports",
        "stance_markers": {
          "opposes": [],
          "supports": [
            "labour market continues to loosen"
          ]
        },
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-minutes-june-2026",
        "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
        "temporal_markers": [
          "could contain"
        ],
        "text": "The labour market continues to loosen, and signs of a weakening economy could contain inflationary pressures.",
        "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
        "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-june-2026.pdf"
      },
      {
        "aspect_matches": [
          "policy decision"
        ],
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 108,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock",
          "entity_or_aspect_verifier_abstained",
          "stance_classifier_abstained"
        ],
        "entity_matches": [],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:boj.or.jp",
        "name": "Bank of Japan — 2026 meeting schedule",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-japan",
        "passage_id": "passage:boj-july-meeting",
        "passage_sha256": "bf575f42bee5ccb67f68803f81d0301dff3dffdc135a73f501be1ca3688e58bc",
        "published_at": null,
        "query_token_overlap": 0.190476,
        "relevance_status": "abstain",
        "retrieval_score": 0.378571,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "boj-meeting-calendar-2026",
        "source_locator": "2026 Date of MPM table",
        "stance": "abstain",
        "stance_markers": {
          "opposes": [],
          "supports": []
        },
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boj-meeting-calendar-2026",
        "temporal_class": "abstain",
        "temporal_markers": [],
        "text": "The Bank of Japan's July Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled for Thursday July 30 and Friday July 31, 2026.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/"
      },
      {
        "aspect_matches": [
          "policy decision"
        ],
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 31,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock",
          "entity_or_aspect_verifier_abstained",
          "stance_classifier_abstained"
        ],
        "entity_matches": [],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:federalreserve.gov",
        "name": "Federal Reserve — 2026 FOMC calendar",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
        "passage_id": "passage:fed-calendar-july-2026",
        "passage_sha256": "908794d122bd1b4abb6087d5c0e3bcd8198d4f10c68164d881f81fd00134b146",
        "published_at": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z",
        "query_token_overlap": 0.047619,
        "relevance_status": "abstain",
        "retrieval_score": 0.357143,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "fed-fomc-calendar-2026",
        "source_locator": "2026 FOMC Meetings table, July row",
        "stance": "abstain",
        "stance_markers": {
          "opposes": [],
          "supports": []
        },
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-fomc-calendar-2026",
        "temporal_class": "abstain",
        "temporal_markers": [],
        "text": "2026 FOMC Meetings. July 28-29.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
      },
      {
        "aspect_matches": [],
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 97,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock",
          "entity_or_aspect_verifier_abstained",
          "stance_classifier_abstained"
        ],
        "entity_matches": [],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:boj.or.jp",
        "name": "Bank of Japan — June 2026 policy decision",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-japan",
        "passage_id": "passage:boj-june-rate-1-0",
        "passage_sha256": "8654513b885836e4dc154e7700ca95c0df0ee8f2bbbc1d0e7b25896cc7cdea7f",
        "published_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00Z",
        "query_token_overlap": 0.142857,
        "relevance_status": "abstain",
        "retrieval_score": 0.021429,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "boj-june-2026-policy-change",
        "source_locator": "Page 1, guideline for money market operations",
        "stance": "abstain",
        "stance_markers": {
          "opposes": [],
          "supports": []
        },
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boj-june-2026-policy-change",
        "temporal_class": "abstain",
        "temporal_markers": [],
        "text": "The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0 percent.",
        "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
        "url": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260616a.pdf"
      },
      {
        "aspect_matches": [],
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 126,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock",
          "entity_or_aspect_verifier_abstained",
          "stance_classifier_abstained"
        ],
        "entity_matches": [],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:federalreserve.gov",
        "name": "Federal Reserve — July 2026 Monetary Policy Report",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:federal-reserve-board",
        "passage_id": "passage:fed-policy-range-maintained",
        "passage_sha256": "54882e3620a1762a1cb1330f894376a54a573083e38b4286a05bad3546bec365",
        "published_at": "2026-07-10T00:00:00Z",
        "query_token_overlap": 0.142857,
        "relevance_status": "abstain",
        "retrieval_score": 0.021429,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "source_locator": "Monetary Policy, Interest rate policy",
        "stance": "abstain",
        "stance_markers": {
          "opposes": [],
          "supports": []
        },
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:fed-mpr-july-2026",
        "temporal_class": "abstain",
        "temporal_markers": [],
        "text": "The FOMC has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent since the beginning of the year.",
        "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
        "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2026-07-mpr-summary.htm"
      },
      {
        "aspect_matches": [],
        "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
        "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
        "char_end": 89,
        "char_start": 0,
        "decision_eligible": false,
        "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
          "captured_after_forecast_lock",
          "entity_or_aspect_verifier_abstained",
          "stance_classifier_abstained"
        ],
        "entity_matches": [],
        "host_cluster_id": "host:bea.gov",
        "name": "BEA — Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index",
        "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bea",
        "passage_id": "passage:bea-pce-next-release",
        "passage_sha256": "bcec80e6b8daaa922e9ec32892cb755b9fe955c3a4faed2c33d092305d75092e",
        "published_at": "2026-06-25T00:00:00Z",
        "query_token_overlap": 0.095238,
        "relevance_status": "abstain",
        "retrieval_score": 0.014286,
        "source_class": "official_public_authority",
        "source_id": "bea-pce-index-june-2026",
        "source_locator": "Current Release",
        "stance": "abstain",
        "stance_markers": {
          "opposes": [],
          "supports": []
        },
        "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:bea-pce-index-june-2026",
        "temporal_class": "historical",
        "temporal_markers": [
          "June"
        ],
        "text": "The PCE price index current release was June 25, 2026; the next release is July 30, 2026.",
        "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
        "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index"
      }
    ],
    "relevance_abstention_count": 5,
    "relevance_verified_count": 3,
    "retrieved_count": 8,
    "top_k": 8
  },
  "retrospective_verified_passages": [
    {
      "aspect_matches": [
        "policy decision"
      ],
      "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
      "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
      "char_end": 88,
      "char_start": 0,
      "decision_eligible": false,
      "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
        "captured_after_forecast_lock"
      ],
      "entity_matches": [
        "Bank of England"
      ],
      "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk",
      "name": "Bank of England — June 2026 MPC minutes",
      "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england",
      "passage_id": "passage:boe-june-hold",
      "passage_sha256": "55c282228365a53179a5a9698668df2eedef1378aa8e54eec839f9c28b9fa7da",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00Z",
      "query_token_overlap": 0.238095,
      "relevance_status": "verified",
      "retrieval_score": 0.885714,
      "source_class": "official_public_authority",
      "source_id": "boe-minutes-june-2026",
      "source_locator": "Page 2, Monetary Policy Summary",
      "stance": "supports",
      "stance_markers": {
        "opposes": [],
        "supports": [
          "maintain Bank Rate at 3.75"
        ]
      },
      "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-minutes-june-2026",
      "temporal_class": "current_state",
      "temporal_markers": [
        "voted"
      ],
      "text": "The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%.",
      "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
      "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-june-2026.pdf"
    },
    {
      "aspect_matches": [
        "policy decision"
      ],
      "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
      "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
      "char_end": 115,
      "char_start": 0,
      "decision_eligible": false,
      "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
        "captured_after_forecast_lock",
        "stance_classifier_abstained"
      ],
      "entity_matches": [
        "Bank of England"
      ],
      "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk",
      "name": "Bank of England — upcoming events",
      "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england",
      "passage_id": "passage:boe-july-meeting",
      "passage_sha256": "adcbf141dae0675c769c25685ed12bb67007d8d25022664cf6569d4fda6446c3",
      "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00Z",
      "query_token_overlap": 0.142857,
      "relevance_status": "verified",
      "retrieval_score": 0.871429,
      "source_class": "official_public_authority",
      "source_id": "boe-upcoming-events-july-2026",
      "source_locator": "27 to 31 July, Thursday 30 July",
      "stance": "abstain",
      "stance_markers": {
        "opposes": [],
        "supports": []
      },
      "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-upcoming-events-july-2026",
      "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
      "temporal_markers": [
        "Thursday 30 July"
      ],
      "text": "Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting - July 2026. Thursday 30 July at 12pm.",
      "text_kind": "normalized_source_extract",
      "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/upcoming-events"
    },
    {
      "aspect_matches": [
        "labour inflation balance"
      ],
      "capture_status": "retrospective_backfill",
      "captured_at": "2026-07-24T09:35:14Z",
      "char_end": 109,
      "char_start": 0,
      "decision_eligible": false,
      "decision_exclusion_reasons": [
        "captured_after_forecast_lock"
      ],
      "entity_matches": [
        "Bank of England"
      ],
      "host_cluster_id": "host:bankofengland.co.uk",
      "name": "Bank of England — June 2026 MPC minutes",
      "origin_cluster_id": "origin:bank-of-england",
      "passage_id": "passage:boe-labour-loosens",
      "passage_sha256": "15c19dbc6d42d70ed673bfe20d11e618c1ab2a6403456315ce729bfea782ac70",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T00:00:00Z",
      "query_token_overlap": 0.142857,
      "relevance_status": "verified",
      "retrieval_score": 0.871429,
      "source_class": "official_public_authority",
      "source_id": "boe-minutes-june-2026",
      "source_locator": "Page 2, Monetary Policy Summary",
      "stance": "supports",
      "stance_markers": {
        "opposes": [],
        "supports": [
          "labour market continues to loosen"
        ]
      },
      "syndication_cluster_id": "syndication:boe-minutes-june-2026",
      "temporal_class": "forward_looking",
      "temporal_markers": [
        "could contain"
      ],
      "text": "The labour market continues to loosen, and signs of a weakening economy could contain inflationary pressures.",
      "text_kind": "verbatim_source_excerpt",
      "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-june-2026.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "stance_counts": {
    "abstain": 0,
    "mixed": 0,
    "opposes": 0,
    "supports": 0
  },
  "status": "abstained_no_prepublication_directional_passages"
}
