claim: Bitcoin trades range-bound (~$52k–$68k) with no >13% weekly move — the quarterly options expiry has cleared, ETF flows are weak, and sentiment is in Extreme Fear.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if Bitcoin's daily closes all stay within $52k–$68k for Jun 29–Jul 5 (no close outside the band).

title: Bitcoin stays stuck near $60k — a quiet, fearful week


claim: The Fed makes no move this week and the higher-for-longer regime holds — markets keep pricing ~zero cuts in 2026, with the surprise risk a HIKE, not a cut.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the Fed makes no rate change Jun 29–Jul 5 (none scheduled; next FOMC Jul 29) AND the modal Polymarket 'Fed rate cuts in 2026' market stays at 0 cuts through Jul 5.

title: Wall Street has given up on 2026 Fed rate cuts


claim: US stock and bond markets are fully closed Friday July 3 (July 4 observed), with a bond half-day Thursday — a thin, headline-sensitive tape with weekend gap risk.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if US equity + bond markets are closed Fri Jul 3 (Independence Day observed). Scheduled-certain — excluded from the skill score.

title: A thin, holiday-shortened week — US markets shut Friday


claim: After weekend US–Iran strikes, the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted and Brent holds above ~$70 with upside skew — no return to a calm, normalized tape this week.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if Brent crude trades above $70 at any point Jun 29–Jul 5 AND Hormuz traffic does NOT durably normalize to pre-crisis levels by Jul 5.

title: Oil keeps a war premium as the Strait of Hormuz stays contested


claim: Early-July seasonality favors a bounce — July 1 has closed green for the S&P 500 in ~90% of the last 21 years, after a 5-day Nasdaq slide and quarter-end selling.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the S&P 500 closes higher on Wed Jul 1 than its Jun 30 close.

title: The calendar's most bullish day is this week


claim: The June payrolls report is released Thursday Jul 2 (pulled forward for the holiday) and shows job growth slowing from May's pace.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the June nonfarm-payrolls print (BLS, Thu Jul 2) comes in below May's +172k headline.

title: June jobs report lands a day early — and hiring keeps cooling


claim: At its July 5 meeting, the OPEC+ voluntary-cut group approves another output increase rather than pausing or cutting.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if the OPEC+ meeting (~Jul 5) approves another output increase for August, per the official communique (vs a pause or a cut).

title: OPEC+ meets Sunday and likely opens the taps again


claim: Tesla reports Q2 deliveries around Thursday Jul 2 — the week's biggest single-stock catalyst — with consensus near 406k.

resolution_criteria: TRUE if Tesla publishes its Q2 2026 delivery figures by Jul 5 (the report landing, not a beat/miss). Scheduled-certain — excluded from the skill score.

title: Tesla's Q2 delivery number drops this week