Gold rose 27.7%. Rates and the dollar implied a 3.4-point drag.
GOLD returned +27.7% over the past year, ahead of the S&P 500 at +22.4%. Its measured sensitivities to long yields and the dollar imply a combined drag of roughly 3.4 points. The force behind the rally lay elsewhere.
The return conceals the risk
GOLD traded at $4,340.70 on 7 August 2026.1 The series here is the front-month COMEX gold futures contract, not spot gold. The two track each other closely and are not the same instrument, and a continuous front-month series is stitched across contracts as each expires. Its twelve-month range ran from $3,313.40 to $5,318.40, leaving the latest price 18.4% below the high.
The endpoint was strong. Gold returned +27.7% over twelve months, beating the S&P 500 at +22.4%. Over three years it returned +125.6%.
The path was rougher. Gold lost 12.3% over the past six months and 8.0% over the past three, before gaining 6.6% in the last month. Its deepest drawdown during the year was 25.1%.
That combination is the point. Gold delivered an index-beating annual return while surrendering a quarter of its value along the way. Safe haven describes a function in a portfolio. It does not describe the path.
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