Oil rose 17% in the 2022 crash and fell 54% in the 2020 one
BRENT CRUDE gained +17.1% through the 2022 rate shock while the S&P 500 fell 25.4%. Its three-year price return is -3.0%. Oil protects against a narrow form of failure, and extracts its cost in nearly every other regime.
Oil's strongest result came when energy was the shock
Through the 2022 rate shock BRENT CRUDE gained 17.1% while the S&P 500 fell 25.4%.1 It is the only asset we track that rose in that window. Oil moved against the market at precisely the moment conventional portfolios needed an offset.
That is the case for owning it. It is also the limit of the case.
In February and March 2020 Brent fell 54.3% against a 33.9% decline in the index. Through the financial crisis it fell 41.5%. Oil did not protect against collapsing demand. It protected when the failure came from energy scarcity and inflation.
The distinction matters. Oil is not general crisis insurance. It pays when oil is the crisis.
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Not investment advice.