New Zealand — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning New Zealand and its globally‑connected markets.
12 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
20%6–18 months
What if drought slashes New Zealand's milk production?
10%6–18 months
What if RBNZ debt-to-income caps bite and depress New Zealand transactions and prices?
10%1–3 years
What if New Zealand's short-duration fixed mortgages reset rapidly to much higher rates?
9%1–3 years
What if Auckland house prices fall more than 25% as leverage unwinds under RBNZ tightening?
8%1–3 years
What if New Zealand house prices fall 35% and mortgage impairments accelerate non-linearly?
8%1–3 years
What if New Zealand house prices fall 25% as RBNZ tightening unwinds the pandemic surge?
8%6–18 months
What if recent New Zealand buyers slip into negative equity as prices fall 20%?
7%1–3 years
What if a further 10% drop in New Zealand prices lifts mortgage impairments by 40%?
7%1–3 years
What if weak dairy prices and higher rates spill into New Zealand provincial housing?
6%1–3 years
What if New Zealand commercial property slumps as high rates bite?
6%1–3 years
What if New Zealand house prices fall 45% in an extreme RBNZ tail scenario?
6%1–3 years
What if New Zealand house prices fall 40% in a severe RBNZ tail scenario?