New Zealand — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning New Zealand and its globally‑connected markets.
12 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
20%6–18 months
What if drought slashes New Zealand's milk production?
10%6–18 months
What if RBNZ debt-to-income caps bite and depress New Zealand transactions and prices?
10%1–3 years
What if New Zealand's short-duration fixed mortgages reset rapidly to much higher rates?
9%1–3 years
What if Auckland house prices fall more than 25% as leverage unwinds under RBNZ tightening?
8%1–3 years
What if New Zealand house prices fall 25% as RBNZ tightening unwinds the pandemic surge?
8%1–3 years
What if New Zealand house prices fall 35% and mortgage impairments accelerate non-linearly?
8%6–18 months
What if recent New Zealand buyers slip into negative equity as prices fall 20%?
7%1–3 years
What if weak dairy prices and higher rates spill into New Zealand provincial housing?
7%1–3 years
What if a further 10% drop in New Zealand prices lifts mortgage impairments by 40%?
6%1–3 years
What if New Zealand house prices fall 40% in a severe RBNZ tail scenario?
6%1–3 years
What if New Zealand commercial property slumps as high rates bite?
6%1–3 years
What if New Zealand house prices fall 45% in an extreme RBNZ tail scenario?