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Research notes from MacroGuru. One asset at a time, every number traced to our own daily series. Published here first, then syndicated. This page is canonical.

• 015 · 2026-08-11 · ASML (ASML)

  ASML fell 22.1% at its worst in a year it gained 144.1%

  ASML fell 22.1% at its worst inside a year it gained 144.1%, the shallowest drawdown of the five chip names here. Of its five closest historical setups, one was higher ninety days…

• 014 · 2026-08-11 · AMD (AMD)

  AMD moves 1.75% for every 1% move in the S&P 500

  AMD returned +180.4% over twelve months and +339.0% over five years. Held against the market its beta is 1.75. Its 84.5% fall through the financial crisis is the deepest in this…

• 013 · 2026-08-11 · MARVELL (MRVL)

  Marvell rose 188% and fell 48% inside the same year.

  MARVELL (MRVL) returned +188.4% over twelve months. Its deepest fall inside those same twelve months was 48.4%, the largest we have measured on any name in this batch. Through the…

• 012 · 2026-08-11 · INTEL (INTC)

  Intel rose 414% in a year. On price it is 13.6 points ahead over five.

  INTEL (INTC) returned +414.2% over twelve months on price, and +88.5% over five years against +74.9% for the S&P 500 price index. The year was a rebound from the bottom of its own…

• 011 · 2026-08-11 · MICRON (MU)

  Micron rose 684%. Nothing since 2000 resembles it.

  MICRON (MU) returned +684.5% over twelve months and +1,197.2% over three years. The five moments in its own history that most resemble today are 1987, 1991, 1994, 1999 and 2000.…

• 010 · 2026-08-11 · SEMICONDUCTORS (SMH)

  Semiconductors doubled in a year while the forward evidence points lower

  SEMICONDUCTORS (SMH) returned +100.2% over twelve months and +280.0% over three years. In the scenario set 6,250 paths move it lower against 2,149 higher, and two of its five…

• 004 · 2026-08-10 · COPPER

  Copper is the one metal that rises when interest rates rise

  COPPER returned +50.1% over the past year and remains 1.9% below its high. Its price still signals strength. The distribution of credible paths leans lower.

• 003 · 2026-08-10 · GOLD

  Gold rose 27.7%. Rates and the dollar implied a 3.4-point drag.

  GOLD returned +27.7% over the past year, ahead of the S&P 500 at +22.4%. Its measured sensitivities to long yields and the dollar imply a combined drag of roughly 3.4 points. The…

• 009 · 2026-08-10 · COMMODITIES

  Commodities split cleanly into metals and everything else. Over five years the split inverts.

  Over three years every metal we track rose and every other commodity fell, with no exceptions. Extend the window to five and the pattern inverts at both ends. The split is real…

• 007 · 2026-08-10 · NATURAL GAS

  Natural gas fell 13% in a year when every other commodity rose

  NATURAL GAS is the only faller in this batch, down 13.2% over twelve months and 64.3% below its high. It also gained 68.7% through the 2022 rate shock, the largest stress-window…

• 005 · 2026-08-10 · BRENT CRUDE

  Oil rose 17% in the 2022 crash and fell 54% in the 2020 one

  BRENT CRUDE gained +17.1% through the 2022 rate shock while the S&P 500 fell 25.4%. Its three-year price return is -3.0%. Oil protects against a narrow form of failure, and…

• 008 · 2026-08-10 · PLATINUM and PALLADIUM

  Platinum returned 81% over five years. Palladium lost 48%.

  PLATINUM and PALLADIUM are usually discussed together. Over three years platinum returned +94.9% against palladium at +13.8%, and over five years the gap becomes an inversion. The…

• 006 · 2026-08-10 · SILVER

  Silver returned 66% and halved, in the same year

  SILVER returned +66.0% over twelve months and +178.8% over three years. It also suffered a 51.4% drawdown, while its closest historical setups produced the only negative base rate…

• 001 · 2026-08-09 · UTILITIES (XLU)

  Utilities returned 0.8% in a year electricity demand boomed

  UTILITIES (XLU) trailed the S&P 500 by 21.6 points over the past year, and the shortfall reads as a verdict on the sector. It is better understood as a timing mismatch, in a year…

• 002 · 2026-08-09 · HOMEBUILDERS (XHB)

  Homebuilders fall 4.88% for every 100 basis points on the ten-year

  Held against the market, HOMEBUILDERS (XHB) moves 4.88% lower for every 100 basis points on the ten-year. UTILITIES (XLU) moves 4.23% lower. The difference between them is not…

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