Every probability on MacroGuru is derived from measured history — a library of dated, sourced market-moving events and what prices actually did around them — not from an analyst's mood.
Every number ships with its receipt: the odds, a 90% credible range, the count of dated precedents behind it, and — for weekly calls — a tamper-evident freeze before the outcome and a public grade after it, at Reality Check.
Honesty rules we hold ourselves to: no probability is ever published at 0% or 100%; a wider range means thinner evidence, on purpose; wins and losses are graded with identical prominence; and when the method changes materially, we say so in the public fix log.
What we don't publish: the statistical machinery itself. The pipeline, parameters and rate tables are proprietary — both because they are the company's core IP and because publishing them would invite gaming of the numbers. You get the audit trail; nobody gets the blueprint.
Questions: admin@macroguru.app.