Calibration — when we say 70%, does it happen ~70% of the time?
Every resolved call adds evidence. We cannot quietly edit the history: publications, resolutions, and evidence corrections are hash-chained.
Bars = the share that actually came true (accent) vs the average probability we assigned (gold tick) in each band. On the line = perfectly calibrated. Small bands are noisy — counts shown at right. Recipe:
methodology.
Cascade backtest · our starting baseline — not a track record
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Across every scenario × asset cell with both a forward direction and a measured historical abnormal return: how often they point the same way. ~50% is a coin flip — we publish it anyway. This is the baseline the learning loop has to beat.
Impact accuracy · our own grade, published first
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The fix-log · what our own scoring caught
We grade ourselves before anyone else can. The full history stays public; the newest outcome and custody fixes appear first.
- 2026-08-02 · A calendar was being treated as proof — FIXED. Scheduled dates may establish when an event should occur, never that it occurred. Composite results now require explicit source review and can bind several sources into one immutable resolution receipt.
- 2026-08-02 · Evidence-reference correction — APPEND-ONLY. A malformed price-data query was not rewritten. A chained amendment preserves the original receipt, records the reason, and publishes the corrected evidence bundle.
- 2026-07-03 · Daily refresh wasn't reaching production — FIXED. Deployment moved to the sanctioned release path, and freshness is now tested as a product contract.
- 2026-07-02 · Circular base rate — FIXED. The probability anchor now comes from measured, dated events rather than an average of authored priors.
- 2026-07-02 · Interval bands too narrow. Impact bands are re-derived from analogue dispersion and checked against observed coverage.
- 2026-07-02 · Confidence was anti-predictive. Confidence is being replaced by an empirically fitted reliability table; until then, it is not a portfolio weight.