Sri Lanka — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Sri Lanka and its globally‑connected markets.
36 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
42%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka state-contingent bond pays bonus coupon on GDP beat?
34%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka tourism-led recovery earns rating upgrade out of default?
31%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka's clean restructuring re-rates the credit toward B?
27%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka regains capital-market access post-restructuring?
27%6–18 months
What if Tourism-led reserve build stabilizes the Sri Lankan rupee?
24%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka inflation normalizes, enabling CBSL rate cuts?
24%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka post-restructuring recovery rewards bondholders (good)?
23%6–18 months
What if Program slippage relapse threatens Sri Lanka's recovery?
22%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka growth rebounds as IMF reforms restore confidence?
21%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka governance-linked bond coupon step-up disputed by holdouts?
21%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka IT and export-services growth diversifies FX earnings?
21%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka ratings upgrade to B- on debt-sustainability proof?
19%3–10 years
What if Port and logistics FDI re-rates Sri Lanka's external outlook?
18%0–6 months
What if Oil-and-growth shock drains Sri Lanka's fragile reserves?
18%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka redux: unrest tips a frontier sovereign to default?
17%1–3 years
What if Macro-linked bond upside pays as Sri Lanka beats GDP triggers?
17%0–6 months
What if Oil spike is a shared BoP shock for South Asian importers?
17%6–18 months
What if Political backlash against austerity stalls Sri Lanka reform?
17%3–10 years
What if Sri Lanka frontier re-inclusion draws dedicated inflows?
17%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka post-restructuring fiscal slippage revives default fear?
17%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka rupee strength prompts CBSL to rebuild reserves?
17%6–18 months
What if Tourism-demand collapse undercuts Sri Lanka's reserve build?
16%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka re-default scare as restructuring terms strain?
16%0–6 months
What if Sri Lanka has to restructure a second time?
15%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka revenue-target miss strains the IMF primary-surplus path?
15%0–6 months
What if Sri Lanka rupee gives back gains as import demand revives?
15%0–6 months
What if Sri Lanka rupee slides as import demand outpaces inflows?
15%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka security scare deters tourists, stalling reserve build?
14%1–3 years
What if a China slowdown triggers distress among Belt-and-Road borrowers?
14%6–18 months
What if Climate-disaster shock strains Sri Lanka's thin buffers?
14%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka contingent-bond GDP triggers stay out of the money?
14%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka graduates to durable B-rated frontier status?
14%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka relapses into default?
13%1–3 years
What if SOE-loss drag reopens Sri Lanka's fiscal sustainability gap?
13%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka energy-tariff pass-through reignites inflation?
13%0–6 months
What if Sri Lanka inflation re-acceleration forces CBSL to pause?