Sri Lanka — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Sri Lanka and its globally‑connected markets.
36 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
42%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka state-contingent bond pays bonus coupon on GDP beat?
34%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka tourism-led recovery earns rating upgrade out of default?
31%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka's clean restructuring re-rates the credit toward B?
27%6–18 months
What if Tourism-led reserve build stabilizes the Sri Lankan rupee?
27%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka regains capital-market access post-restructuring?
24%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka inflation normalizes, enabling CBSL rate cuts?
24%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka post-restructuring recovery rewards bondholders (good)?
23%6–18 months
What if Program slippage relapse threatens Sri Lanka's recovery?
22%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka growth rebounds as IMF reforms restore confidence?
21%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka governance-linked bond coupon step-up disputed by holdouts?
20%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka ratings upgrade to B- on debt-sustainability proof?
20%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka IT and export-services growth diversifies FX earnings?
19%3–10 years
What if Port and logistics FDI re-rates Sri Lanka's external outlook?
18%0–6 months
What if Oil-and-growth shock drains Sri Lanka's fragile reserves?
17%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka rupee strength prompts CBSL to rebuild reserves?
17%3–10 years
What if Sri Lanka frontier re-inclusion draws dedicated inflows?
17%1–3 years
What if Macro-linked bond upside pays as Sri Lanka beats GDP triggers?
17%6–18 months
What if Tourism-demand collapse undercuts Sri Lanka's reserve build?
17%6–18 months
What if Political backlash against austerity stalls Sri Lanka reform?
17%0–6 months
What if Oil spike is a shared BoP shock for South Asian importers?
17%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka post-restructuring fiscal slippage revives default fear?
17%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka redux: unrest tips a frontier sovereign to default?
16%0–6 months
What if Sri Lanka has to restructure a second time?
16%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka re-default scare as restructuring terms strain?
15%0–6 months
What if Sri Lanka rupee slides as import demand outpaces inflows?
15%0–6 months
What if Sri Lanka rupee gives back gains as import demand revives?
15%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka revenue-target miss strains the IMF primary-surplus path?
15%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka security scare deters tourists, stalling reserve build?
14%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka relapses into default?
14%1–3 years
What if a China slowdown triggers distress among Belt-and-Road borrowers?
14%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka graduates to durable B-rated frontier status?
14%6–18 months
What if Climate-disaster shock strains Sri Lanka's thin buffers?
14%1–3 years
What if Sri Lanka contingent-bond GDP triggers stay out of the money?
13%1–3 years
What if SOE-loss drag reopens Sri Lanka's fiscal sustainability gap?
13%0–6 months
What if Sri Lanka inflation re-acceleration forces CBSL to pause?
13%6–18 months
What if Sri Lanka energy-tariff pass-through reignites inflation?