What if Oil spike is a shared BoP shock for South Asian importers?
A Brent surge simultaneously blows out the import bills of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, pressuring reserves and currencies and reigniting inflation across the region.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Brent surge simultaneously blows out the import bills of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, pressuring reserves and currencies and reigniting inflation across the region. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.6% hist -0.8–+2.06% · other way -3.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.3% hist -3.36–+1.76% · other way +30.65% (n=12) |
| 3 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.9% hist -4.89–+1.61% · other way -3.53% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.59–-0.48% · other way -0.32% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -5.47–+1.04% · other way +8.33% (n=12) |
| 6 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.0% hist -0.57–+1.16% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.79–+1.05% · other way -2.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.34–-0.24% · other way -0.4% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.5–+5.86% · other way +8.76% (n=12) |
| 11 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.38–+1.22% · other way -1.61% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.74–+1.02% · other way +4.74% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.48–+12.53% · other way +21.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.75–-0.28% · other way -0.14% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +7.7% · 5d +0.5% | 75% | 15 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.9% · 5d +3.5% | 75% | 15 | 0.45 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -2.9% | 72% | 30 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 70% | 30 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.3% | 65% | 32 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +7.6% | 64% | 35 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 31 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 27 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 28 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 66% | 15 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 27 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 21 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 28 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |