Syria — probable futures

Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Syria and its globally‑connected markets.

13 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.

22%3–10 years
What if Syria return-and-reconstruction boom lifts regional trade (good)?
risk-on
18%6–18 months
What if Syria sectarian war reignites?
risk-off
17%1–3 years
What if Syria stabilization dividend reopens trade?
risk-on
16%1–3 years
What if post-Assad Syria fragments into warlord enclaves again?
risk-off
14%3–10 years
What if Syria reconstruction draws Gulf capital?
risk-on
14%1–3 years
What if Syria sanctions lifted, reconstruction boom begins?
risk-on
13%1–3 years
What if Turkey-Syria normalization secures the border?
risk-on
12%6–18 months
What if Syria chaos triggers a new refugee wave?
risk-off
12%6–18 months
What if Turkey-Israel clash over Syria spills over?
risk-off
12%1–3 years
What if Israel-Syria deconfliction line holds?
risk-on
11%6–18 months
What if Syria partitions along sectarian lines?
risk-off
10%0–6 months
What if Israeli strikes deep in Syria draw Turkish ire?
risk-off
10%1–3 years
What if Turkey-PKK peace process unravels?
risk-off