Syria — probable futures

Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Syria and its globally‑connected markets.

13 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.

22%3–10 years
What if Syria return-and-reconstruction boom lifts regional trade (good)?
risk-on
18%6–18 months
What if Syria sectarian war reignites?
risk-off
17%1–3 years
What if Syria stabilization dividend reopens trade?
risk-on
16%1–3 years
What if post-Assad Syria fragments into warlord enclaves again?
risk-off
14%3–10 years
What if Syria reconstruction draws Gulf capital?
risk-on
14%1–3 years
What if Syria sanctions lifted, reconstruction boom begins?
risk-on
14%1–3 years
What if Turkey-Syria normalization secures the border?
risk-on
13%1–3 years
What if Israel-Syria deconfliction line holds?
risk-on
12%6–18 months
What if Syria chaos triggers a new refugee wave?
risk-off
12%6–18 months
What if Turkey-Israel clash over Syria spills over?
risk-off
11%6–18 months
What if Syria partitions along sectarian lines?
risk-off
10%0–6 months
What if Israeli strikes deep in Syria draw Turkish ire?
risk-off
10%1–3 years
What if Turkey-PKK peace process unravels?
risk-off