What if post-Assad Syria fragments into warlord enclaves again?
Renewed Syrian civil war drawing in Turkey, Israel and Iran is a contained geopolitical shock — Syria is not an oil exporter, so Brent carries only a token premium and the move is vol/equity-led. Analogue: the 2011-2015 Syrian war, which despite immense human toll moved oil little absent direct Gulf involvement. The actionable read is a brief risk-off fade; the only real tail is escalation that pulls in Iranian or Gulf supply, which the scenario does not specify.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Renewed civil war shatters post-Assad Syria into warlord enclaves, drawing in Turkish, Israeli and Iranian forces. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.