Afghanistan — probable futures

Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Afghanistan and its globally‑connected markets.

3 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.

16%1–3 years
What if ISIS-K mounts a sustained offensive in Afghanistan?
risk-off
12%1–3 years
What if the TTP carves out a statelet in Pakistan's northwest?
risk-off
10%1–3 years
What if Afghanistan Mes Aynak copper finally enters development?
risk-off