What if Afghanistan Mes Aynak copper finally enters development?
A long-stalled deal advances the giant Mes Aynak copper deposit toward production, signaling new long-dated supply that tempers the deficit narrative.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A long-stalled deal advances the giant Mes Aynak copper deposit toward production, signaling new long-dated supply that tempers the deficit narrative. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.9% hist -0.98–+6.91% · other way -3.49% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.37–-0.22% · other way +1.52% (n=12) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.44–+1.12% · other way +7.78% (n=12) |
| 4 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.73–+0.49% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+0.46% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.29–+0.17% · other way +1.59% (n=12) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.08–+0.21% · other way +3.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.22–+0.05% · other way +0.92% (n=12) |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.14–-0.08% · other way +7.76% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.52–+0.42% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.1–+2.77% · other way -0.12% (n=8) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.24–+1.43% · other way +6.05% (n=12) |
| 13 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.09–+0.71% · other way +2.95% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.25–+2.21% · other way +1.31% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.0% | 68% | 29 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.3% · 5d +2.0% | 67% | 32 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 27 | 0.25 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.0% | 64% | 30 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.8% | 61% | 37 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 26 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.4% | 58% | 30 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.5% | 57% | 22 | 0.12 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +3bp | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 29 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.0% | 55% | 30 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.0% | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.2% | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | · |