What if the TTP carves out a statelet in Pakistan's northwest?
A TTP statelet severing KP highways to Afghanistan is a Pakistan-sovereign and PKR story, not a global-asset event -- the +7.5% VIX overstates it. Rhymes with the 2007-2009 Swat/FATA Taliban surge, which crushed Pakistani equities and the rupee but left world markets untouched. Transmission: Pakistan leans on IMF, China (CPEC) and Gulf funding; a tribal-belt loss threatens that lifeline and the Karakoram trade route. Forward: the live tail is nuclear-state instability, which is the only channel that would actually move global risk.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The TTP overruns and holds districts across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, declaring administration over a contiguous tribal belt and severing major highways to Afghanistan. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.