Bolivia — probable futures

Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Bolivia and its globally‑connected markets.

7 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.

53%3–10 years
What if Latin America lithium triangle anchors EV materials?
risk-on
33%3–10 years
What if LatAm lithium triangle dominates global EV-battery supply?
risk-on
27%6–18 months
What if Bolivia abandons its 25-year dollar peg?
risk-on
19%0–6 months
What if Bolivia misses a coupon and tips into default?
risk-off
15%6–18 months
What if Andean political turmoil cluster spikes regional risk premia?
risk-off
13%6–18 months
What if Bolivia FX-reserve crisis amid political gridlock?
risk-off
11%1–3 years
What if Andean glacier loss cuts water supply for cities, farms, and mines?
mixed