What if Bolivia misses a coupon and tips into default?
A missed 2026 external coupon as reserves re-drain pushes Bolivia into default and restructuring — a small, illiquid frontier credit event with negligible global read. Rhymes with Ecuador's 2020 default among small commodity-dependent LatAm sovereigns. Bolivia's gas exports to Brazil/Argentina fund its FX, now collapsing with output; the forward risk is that depleted gas revenue removes the historical reserve cushion, making this default structural rather than cyclical.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Bolivia misses a 2026 external coupon as rebuilt reserves drain again, pushing BOLIV bonds into default and forcing restructuring. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.