What if Bolivia abandons its 25-year dollar peg?
Abandoning the 25-year boliviano peg triggers deposit dollarization and capital flight — a self-contained EM crisis, not a global reserve-confidence or gold trade. Rhymes with Argentina's 2002 convertibility break and Egypt 2016. Bolivia's gas trade with Brazil/Argentina is the FX lifeline that has failed; the novel angle is that a 25-year nominal anchor breaking unleashes a balance-sheet shock as dollar liabilities reprice against a floating, collapsing boliviano.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Bolivia abandons its 25-year dollar peg amid dollar shortages, triggering deposit dollarization and capital flight. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.