Ireland — probable futures

Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Ireland and its globally‑connected markets.

9 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.

26%1–3 years
What if Portugal and Ireland run surpluses, periphery converges to core?
risk-on
23%6–18 months
What if US pharma tariffs are extended to generic drugs?
risk-off
22%6–18 months
What if Section 232 pharma tariffs hit Irish/Swiss-made US drug imports?
risk-off
15%6–18 months
What if the UK-EU customs deal collapses over Northern Ireland?
risk-off
9%1–3 years
What if Irish commercial property falls and concentrated bank exposures take losses?
risk-off
9%1–3 years
What if Irish house prices fall 20% as ECB rates meet stretched affordability?
risk-off
9%6–18 months
What if Irish tracker mortgages jump in cost as ECB policy tightens?
risk-off
7%1–3 years
What if concentrated Irish data-center lending sours amid power constraints?
risk-off
7%1–3 years
What if long-term Irish mortgage arrears from the 2008 crisis worsen under rate hikes?
risk-off