What if the UK-EU customs deal collapses over Northern Ireland?
A Windsor Framework breakdown over Northern Ireland revives UK-EU trade friction — the hit lands on GBP, UK/Irish exporters and EU-UK-exposed names, NOT semiconductors, Nvidia and Alibaba as the cascade absurdly routes via a generic tech-tariff channel. Rhymes with the 2019-21 NI-protocol disputes that pressured sterling on hard-border fears. Transmission: bilateral UK-EU goods trade, Irish supply chains and GBP are the conduits; East-Asian tech is irrelevant. Forward angle: this is a regional regulatory-border spat, so size it as a GBP/UK-equity event, not a global supply-chain shock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Windsor Framework talks break down over Northern Ireland, reviving hard-border and trade-friction fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.4% hist -0.06–+7.49% · other way -3.55% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.0% hist -1.92–-0.74% · other way +0.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.35–-0.27% · other way +0.42% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.24–+0.33% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.19–+0.2% · other way +3.1% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.29–-0.21% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.02–-0.05% · other way +25.41% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.1–-0.34% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.18–+2.12% · other way -3.1% (n=11) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.24–+0.74% · other way +0.74% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.28–+2.4% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.91–+0.02% · other way +4.09% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.86–-0.21% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.82–+0.18% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT AVGO/TSM/SMH: the gains are all April-2025 Liberation-Day windows where AI-capex demand overwhelmed the tariff hit — semis' trade-friction channel is real but swamped, history is regime-biased.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +12.1% · 5d +7.7% | 82% | 10 | 0.51 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -7.1% | 70% | 17 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -2.4% | 67% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 37 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 39 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 31 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -4.2% | 62% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 38 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +2bp · 5d +4bp | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.8% | 57% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Windsor Framework operating; full customs collapse contrary to both sides' interests, unlikely. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.