What if the UK-EU customs deal collapses over Northern Ireland?
A Windsor Framework breakdown over Northern Ireland revives UK-EU trade friction — the hit lands on GBP, UK/Irish exporters and EU-UK-exposed names, NOT semiconductors, Nvidia and Alibaba as the cascade absurdly routes via a generic tech-tariff channel. Rhymes with the 2019-21 NI-protocol disputes that pressured sterling on hard-border fears. Transmission: bilateral UK-EU goods trade, Irish supply chains and GBP are the conduits; East-Asian tech is irrelevant. Forward angle: this is a regional regulatory-border spat, so size it as a GBP/UK-equity event, not a global supply-chain shock.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Windsor Framework talks break down over Northern Ireland, reviving hard-border and trade-friction fears. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.