What if US pharma tariffs are extended to generic drugs?
Extending Section 232 to generic finished drugs is a healthcare-cost and India/Ireland pharma shock, not a semis trade: it lifts US drug CPI and squeezes Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's and Teva, with the cascade's Nasdaq/TSMC leg largely misplaced. No clean analogue; closest is the 2018 232 steel/aluminum playbook applied to a price-inelastic essential. India supplies ~40% of US generic volume and Ireland the branded base; the forward angle is that inelastic demand means the tariff is inflationary first, growth-negative second.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. US extends Section 232 pharma tariffs to cover generic finished drugs, spiking healthcare costs and squeezing Indian and Irish makers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.