Myanmar — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Myanmar and its globally‑connected markets.
16 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
54%1–3 years
What if Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade?
41%6–18 months
What if Burkina Faso junta loses the north to JNIM?
25%1–3 years
What if Tin solder squeeze on Indonesian and Myanmar supply hits?
20%0–6 months
What if Myanmar's rare-earth mines collapse in the civil war?
19%6–18 months
What if JNIM overruns Bamako and topples Mali's junta?
18%6–18 months
What if Myanmar rare-earth supply cutoff jolts heavy-REE feed?
16%1–3 years
What if Myanmar's junta collapses and the country fragments?
16%6–18 months
What if Niger sells seized French uranium to Russia?
15%0–6 months
What if JNIM blockade strangles Bamako fuel supply?
14%1–3 years
What if Bamako overrun, Mali junta flees?
14%1–3 years
What if Mali-Algeria tensions flare over Tuareg rebels?
14%6–18 months
What if Myanmar instability disrupts regional supply and FX?
12%1–3 years
What if the coup belt spreads west to Senegal and Ivory Coast?
12%1–3 years
What if Indonesian and Myanmar tin supply disruptions spike electronics solder costs?
11%6–18 months
What if Sahel-coast tension shuts a key transit corridor?
10%1–3 years
What if combined tin and tantalum supply disruptions squeeze thin electronics-input markets?