What if Indonesian and Myanmar tin supply disruptions spike electronics solder costs?
Indonesian/Myanmar tin supply disruption tightens the market for electronics solder, spiking LME tin and exposing semiconductor and electronics assembly to a thin-market critical-input squeeze.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Indonesian/Myanmar tin supply disruption tightens the market for electronics solder, spiking LME tin and exposing semiconductor and electronics assembly to a thin-market critical-input squeeze. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.7% hist -0.35–+6.93% · other way -6.78% (n=12) |
| 2 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.79–+0.28% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.89–-0.4% · other way +0.35% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.68–+0.07% · other way +4.39% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.67–-0.25% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.38–+0.65% · other way -5.14% (n=12) |
| 7 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.65–-0.03% · other way +0.76% (n=12) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.15–+0.52% · other way +2.22% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.98–+0.02% · other way -2.52% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.15–+1.47% · other way -0.24% (n=12) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.51–+0.12% · other way -5.31% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.27–+1.73% · other way -0.46% (n=12) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.62–+1.02% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.54–+0.85% · other way -4.5% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +5.8% | 67% | 35 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -5.4% | 67% | 28 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.1% | 65% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 34 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -3.4% | 63% | 31 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.7% | 62% | 34 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.1% | 60% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 34 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -6.7% | 60% | 23 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -3.4% | 56% | 34 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 54% | 34 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.9% | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |