What if the coup belt spreads west to Senegal and Ivory Coast?
Coups in Senegal and Ivory Coast extending the junta belt to the Atlantic is a frontier-political shock with minimal global market footprint (VIX +7.5). Analogue: the 2020-2023 Sahel coup wave (Mali, Burkina, Niger), which reordered regional alignments but barely registered in global risk assets. The one specific channel worth flagging that the generic roots miss: Ivory Coast is the world's top cocoa exporter, so the real, tradeable risk is a cocoa supply premium, not US equity beta.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Military coups topple governments in Senegal and Ivory Coast, extending the Sahel junta bloc to the Atlantic coast. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.