Niger — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Niger and its globally‑connected markets.
11 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
43%1–3 years
What if Nuclear-renaissance demand outruns uranium supply?
38%1–3 years
What if AES quits CFA franc, West African FX splits?
31%6–18 months
What if Niger Delta sabotage cuts Nigerian crude exports again?
21%6–18 months
What if Niger and Mali coup risk severs French uranium supply?
19%6–18 months
What if Niger sells its seized uranium to Russia?
19%0–6 months
What if the Niger Delta insurgency reignites and halts Nigerian oil?
18%6–18 months
What if Niger nationalizes uranium, Western fuel tightens?
17%1–3 years
What if Sahel jihadists seize a working uranium mine?
16%6–18 months
What if Niger Delta militancy reignites, cutting Nigeria crude?
16%6–18 months
What if Niger sells seized French uranium to Russia?
11%0–6 months
What if sabotage on Nigeria's Niger Delta infrastructure cuts several hundred thousand barrels per day?