Niger — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Niger and its globally‑connected markets.
11 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
45%1–3 years
What if Nuclear-renaissance demand outruns uranium supply?
38%1–3 years
What if AES quits CFA franc, West African FX splits?
30%6–18 months
What if Niger Delta sabotage cuts Nigerian crude exports again?
21%6–18 months
What if Niger and Mali coup risk severs French uranium supply?
19%6–18 months
What if Niger sells its seized uranium to Russia?
19%0–6 months
What if the Niger Delta insurgency reignites and halts Nigerian oil?
17%6–18 months
What if Niger nationalizes uranium, Western fuel tightens?
16%6–18 months
What if Niger Delta militancy reignites, cutting Nigeria crude?
15%6–18 months
What if Niger sells seized French uranium to Russia?
12%1–3 years
What if Sahel jihadists seize a working uranium mine?
11%0–6 months
What if sabotage on Nigeria's Niger Delta infrastructure cuts several hundred thousand barrels per day?