What if the Niger Delta insurgency reignites and halts Nigerian oil?
A renewed Niger Delta insurgency shutting Nigerian oil and LNG terminals is a real supply shock — Brent +5.4, light-sweet grades and jet/diesel bid, equity sold modestly. Direct analogue: MEND's 2006-2009 campaign, which cut Nigerian output by up to a third and supported Brent's light-sweet premium. Transmission: Nigerian Bonny Light feeds European and Indian refiners and LNG goes to Europe/Asia; the forward angle is that with Europe more LNG-dependent post-Russia, a terminal shutdown bites European gas harder than in the 2000s.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Militants resume mass attacks on Nigerian oil and gas infrastructure, slashing exports and shutting LNG terminals. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.