What if Niger and Mali coup risk severs French uranium supply?
Sahel instability disrupts Orano's uranium exports, removing a key European supply line and forcing utilities to chase scarce pounds in an already tight market.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sahel instability disrupts Orano's uranium exports, removing a key European supply line and forcing utilities to chase scarce pounds in an already tight market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.1% hist +1.74–+2.94% · other way -3.22% (n=6) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.27–-0.71% · other way -1.41% (n=7) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.93–-0.42% · other way +0.01% (n=5) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.58–+0.85% · other way -1.22% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.81–-0.21% · other way -1.22% (n=5) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.9–+7.7% · other way +2.69% (n=5) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.83–+7.97% · other way +4.83% (n=2) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.44–+0.16% · other way +9.99% (n=2) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.68–-0.11% · other way -10.84% (n=5) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.13–+1.01% · other way -4.49% (n=5) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.2–+3.66% · other way +14.01% (n=2) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.37–-0.16% · other way -0.73% (n=5) |
| 14 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.58–+0.46% · other way -9.23% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.3% | 67% | 39 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +0.8% | 66% | 33 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.8% · 5d +1.8% | 61% | 21 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.4% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +5.8% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.0% | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.7% | 58% | 37 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.4% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.0% · 5d +1.1% | 55% | 34 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -4.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 29 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.0% · 5d -6.2% ↺ fades | 55% | 28 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |