Iraq — probable futures

Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Iraq and its globally‑connected markets.

13 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.

23%6–18 months
What if Iraq federal-Kurdish dispute halts 0.4 mb/d via Ceyhan?
risk-off
17%0–6 months
What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
risk-off
16%0–6 months
What if the US freezes Iraq's dollar auctions over Iran flows?
risk-off
16%0–6 months
What if Iraq openly busts its OPEC+ production quota?
risk-off
14%0–6 months
What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?
risk-off
14%6–18 months
What if Iraqi militia attacks resume on US bases and oil?
risk-off
11%0–6 months
What if Cross-border strikes hit Jordan and Iraq energy links?
risk-off
10%0–6 months
What if attacks sever Iraq's export pipelines and remove 2 million barrels per day?
risk-off
10%1–3 years
What if Brent well below Iraq's fiscal breakeven strains public wages and revives political risk?
risk-off
10%1–3 years
What if Turkey-PKK peace process unravels?
risk-off
9%0–6 months
What if payment disputes prolong the shutdown of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline?
risk-off
9%1–3 years
What if a prolonged oil-price slump triggers fiscal and FX crises across oil-dependent EMs?
risk-off
6%6–18 months
What if Iran-aligned militias seize Iraq's Basra oilfields?
risk-off