Iraq — probable futures

Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Iraq and its globally‑connected markets.

13 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.

23%6–18 months
What if Iraq federal-Kurdish dispute halts 0.4 mb/d via Ceyhan?
risk-off
17%0–6 months
What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
risk-off
16%0–6 months
What if the US freezes Iraq's dollar auctions over Iran flows?
risk-off
16%0–6 months
What if Iraq openly busts its OPEC+ production quota?
risk-off
14%0–6 months
What if Iran-axis proxy surge across three fronts?
risk-off
14%6–18 months
What if Iraqi militia attacks resume on US bases and oil?
risk-off
11%0–6 months
What if Cross-border strikes hit Jordan and Iraq energy links?
risk-off
10%0–6 months
What if attacks sever Iraq's export pipelines and remove 2 million barrels per day?
risk-off
10%1–3 years
What if Brent well below Iraq's fiscal breakeven strains public wages and revives political risk?
risk-off
10%1–3 years
What if Turkey-PKK peace process unravels?
risk-off
9%0–6 months
What if payment disputes prolong the shutdown of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline?
risk-off
9%1–3 years
What if a prolonged oil-price slump triggers fiscal and FX crises across oil-dependent EMs?
risk-off
6%6–18 months
What if Iran-aligned militias seize Iraq's Basra oilfields?
risk-off