What if Iraq openly busts its OPEC+ production quota?
Baghdad openly busting quota and rejecting compensation cuts fractures OPEC+ cohesion, pressuring Brent lower and steepening the front of the curve; short Brent with a mild VIX bid on cartel-breakup risk is the trade. Rhymes with chronic Iraqi over-production disputes and the 2020 compliance fights that preceded the price war. Transmission: Iraq is OPEC's second-largest producer selling into Asia/Europe, so its defection undercuts the Saudi-led cut; forward angle: persistent Iraqi non-compliance plus Kazakh overflow in 2026 makes Saudi punishment-barrels likelier, amplifying the downside beyond a one-off revolt.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Baghdad openly busts its quota and rejects compensation cuts, fracturing OPEC+ cohesion. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -3.6% hist -3.77–-0.45% · other way -0.65% (n=8) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -3.0% hist -2.99–-0.37% · other way -0.4% (n=8) |
| 3 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.43–+1.69% · other way +0.19% (n=9) |
| 4 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.74–+0.32% · other way -1.13% (n=8) |
| 5 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.14–+2.7% · other way +18.69% (n=8) |
| 6 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.3–+0.27% · other way -0.13% (n=12) |
| 7 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.02–+0.11% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 8 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.5% hist +0.54–+1.03% · other way +9.47% (n=8) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.13–+1.74% · other way -2.25% (n=8) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -6bp hist -4.46–-0.45% · other way +17.5% (n=11) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -3.78–-0.93% · other way +19.6% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.57–+0.03% · other way -1.11% (n=10) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.47–+9.42% · other way +2.4% (n=6) |
| 14 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.41% · other way +2.19% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade SHORT on AVGO/SMH: their tiny positive history is AI-capex beta from tariff-war windows — the dominant chip-cycle driver swamps any Iraq/OPEC oil channel, which is second-order at best.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +14.7% · 5d +3.9% | 82% | 10 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -4.0% | 70% | 27 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 64% | 26 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 26 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 65% | 32 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.8% | 63% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 61% | 24 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 61% | 28 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.3% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +0.6% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 28 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.2% | 57% | 24 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 28 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +9.7% · 5d -7.8% ↺ fades | 58% | 12 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Iraq chronically overproduces; open quota revolt recurrent friction but full fracture less certain. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.