What if Iran-aligned militias seize Iraq's Basra oilfields?
Iran-aligned militias overrunning Basra and knocking out ~3mbd is a hard supply shock — Brent +7, distillates bid, equity sold on inflation-plus-risk. Direct analogue: the 2014 ISIS sweep that threatened Iraqi output and lifted Brent before southern fields proved insulated. Transmission: Basra crude feeds Asian refiners (India, China); the forward angle is that OPEC spare capacity (largely Saudi/UAE) could backfill, capping the spike — the bull case requires the outage to outlast that buffer.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Iran-aligned militias overrun Basra oilfields amid government collapse, knocking out three million barrels daily. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.