What if Iran's proxies break the truce and saturate Israel's defenses?
A multi-front Iranian-proxy saturation barrage overwhelming Israeli defenses is a wider regional shock — Brent leads WTI on Hormuz spillover fear, high-beta equity and tech sold hard. Direct analogue: October 2024's Iranian ballistic salvo, which spiked Brent then bled the premium as no barrels were lost. Transmission is the Strait of Hormuz to Asian importers; the forward angle is air-defense interceptor depletion — a credible saturation that exhausts Israeli/US magazines is the one path that keeps the oil premium sticky.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The 60-day Iran truce collapses; Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraqi militias launch simultaneous saturation barrages exceeding 2026 levels, overwhelming Israeli air defenses nationwide. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.