Sudan — probable futures

Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Sudan and its globally‑connected markets.

13 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.

47%1–3 years
What if Sudan reconstruction reopens Red Sea gold trade?
risk-on
44%0–6 months
What if RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine?
risk-off
44%6–18 months
What if Sudan refugee surge strains Chad and South Sudan?
risk-off
40%6–18 months
What if South Sudan pipeline reopening restores crude flows?
mixed
37%6–18 months
What if RSF takes el-Obeid, splitting Sudan in two?
risk-off
31%1–3 years
What if Sudan hardens into two rival states?
risk-off
25%1–3 years
What if Quad-brokered Sudan ceasefire holds?
risk-on
21%1–3 years
What if Nile water clash flares over GERD reservoir filling?
risk-off
21%6–18 months
What if Sudan war drives Egypt's external gap wider?
risk-off
20%0–6 months
What if Sudan gold-for-weapons nexus hit by US sanctions?
risk-off
14%6–18 months
What if RSF push to Port Sudan threatens Red Sea coast?
risk-off
14%6–18 months
What if Sudan war spills into South Sudan oilfields?
risk-off
11%6–18 months
What if Sudan splits into two rival recognised states?
risk-off