Sudan — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Sudan and its globally‑connected markets.
13 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
47%1–3 years
What if Sudan reconstruction reopens Red Sea gold trade?
44%0–6 months
What if RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine?
44%6–18 months
What if Sudan refugee surge strains Chad and South Sudan?
40%6–18 months
What if South Sudan pipeline reopening restores crude flows?
37%6–18 months
What if RSF takes el-Obeid, splitting Sudan in two?
31%1–3 years
What if Sudan hardens into two rival states?
24%1–3 years
What if Quad-brokered Sudan ceasefire holds?
21%1–3 years
What if Nile water clash flares over GERD reservoir filling?
21%6–18 months
What if Sudan war drives Egypt's external gap wider?
20%0–6 months
What if Sudan gold-for-weapons nexus hit by US sanctions?
14%6–18 months
What if RSF push to Port Sudan threatens Red Sea coast?
14%6–18 months
What if Sudan war spills into South Sudan oilfields?
10%6–18 months
What if Sudan splits into two rival recognised states?