What if Sudan splits into two rival recognised states?
Sudan splitting along the oil-pipeline split is mainly a thin Brent premium: landlocked South Sudanese crude (~150kbd) transits north to Port Sudan, so partition threatens the export line, not Gulf barrels -- hence the modest +1.8% Brent. Closest analogue is the 2012 Heglig shutdown, which spiked Brent only briefly. The binding partner link is China/CNPC (the pipeline operator and main offtaker) plus Juba's fiscal dependence on transit fees; novelty is RSF-Gulf patronage redirecting flows. Small premium, fade fast.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The RSF's Nyala government declares formal independence over Darfur and Kordofan, partitioning Sudan into rival recognized states and splitting oil-pipeline routes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.