What if Nile water clash flares over GERD reservoir filling?
A unilateral GERD filling move sharpens the Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan water dispute toward military brinkmanship, lifting North-East African geopolitical risk.
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The butterfly cascade
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What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A unilateral GERD filling move sharpens the Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan water dispute toward military brinkmanship, lifting North-East African geopolitical risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.