What if RSF push to Port Sudan threatens Red Sea coast?
An RSF drive toward Port Sudan endangers Sudan's only major seaport and Red Sea access, lifting regional shipping and gold-logistics risk.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An RSF drive toward Port Sudan endangers Sudan's only major seaport and Red Sea access, lifting regional shipping and gold-logistics risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.