Venezuela — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Venezuela and its globally‑connected markets.
30 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries our model odds, the live crowd price, and the markets it moves.
52%1–3 years
What if Venezuela reopening drags Gulf-Coast heavy-crude spreads?
50%1–3 years
What if Venezuela dollarization stabilizes the economy?
46%1–3 years
What if Venezuela debt restructuring revives defaulted bonds?
46%1–3 years
What if Venezuela transition opens reconstruction investment?
45%6–18 months
What if Venezuela hyperinflation re-accelerates as bolivar collapses?
44%6–18 months
What if Venezuela transition fragments, migration surges north?
40%1–3 years
What if Venezuela-Guyana clash pulls in US carrier group?
40%6–18 months
What if Heavy-sour glut widens discounts as upgraders run flat-out?
39%0–6 months
What if Venezuela's inflation re-accelerates and forces another redenomination?
38%1–3 years
What if Venezuela-backed influx destabilizes Trinidad and Guyana?
36%1–3 years
What if Venezuela-Guyana ICJ ruling defuses Essequibo?
31%0–6 months
What if US sanctions block Venezuela's $5.9bn Citgo sale?
29%1–3 years
What if Sanctions relief reopens a major economy to trade?
21%6–18 months
What if Sanctions snapback removes Venezuelan barrels again?
20%0–6 months
What if the US imposes full secondary sanctions on Venezuelan crude?
20%1–3 years
What if Venezuela normalization and return relieve regional strain (good)?
19%6–18 months
What if Venezuela sanctions snapback strips 0.8 mb/d of heavy crude?
18%6–18 months
What if Venezuela migration wave strains Colombia and Peru fiscally?
15%0–6 months
What if Venezuela sanctions relief sticks, Chevron crude returns?
15%6–18 months
What if Venezuela strikes Stabroek, hitting ExxonMobil oil?
15%1–3 years
What if Essequibo annexation push escalates with Guyana?
15%6–18 months
What if Colombia-Venezuela border flares with armed groups?
14%6–18 months
What if Venezuela oil sabotage spikes amid power struggle?
13%1–3 years
What if post-Maduro Venezuela splinters into an oil war?
11%6–18 months
What if Venezuelan heavy crude exports collapse back toward 2020 lows?
11%1–3 years
What if a surge of sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian barrels floods an oversupplied oil market?
11%1–3 years
What if re-imposed US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tighten the heavy-sour crude market?
9%6–18 months
What if Venezuela invades Guyana to seize its oil?
8%6–18 months
What if loss of medium-sour barrels from Iran and Russia leaves refiners short of the grades they need?
6%1–3 years
What if a Latin American resource dispute disrupts commodity supply?