Venezuela — probable futures
Forward‑looking scenarios concerning Venezuela and its globally‑connected markets.
30 scenarios tracked, ranked by probability. Each carries the published odds and markets it could move; a market comparison appears when a matching market is available.
52%1–3 years
What if Venezuela reopening drags Gulf-Coast heavy-crude spreads?
50%1–3 years
What if Venezuela dollarization stabilizes the economy?
45%6–18 months
What if Venezuela hyperinflation re-accelerates as bolivar collapses?
44%1–3 years
What if Venezuela debt restructuring revives defaulted bonds?
44%6–18 months
What if Venezuela transition fragments, migration surges north?
44%1–3 years
What if Venezuela transition opens reconstruction investment?
40%1–3 years
What if Venezuela-Guyana clash pulls in US carrier group?
39%0–6 months
What if Venezuela's inflation re-accelerates and forces another redenomination?
38%1–3 years
What if Venezuela-backed influx destabilizes Trinidad and Guyana?
37%6–18 months
What if Heavy-sour glut widens discounts as upgraders run flat-out?
36%1–3 years
What if Venezuela-Guyana ICJ ruling defuses Essequibo?
31%0–6 months
What if US sanctions block Venezuela's $5.9bn Citgo sale?
29%1–3 years
What if Sanctions relief reopens a major economy to trade?
21%6–18 months
What if Sanctions snapback removes Venezuelan barrels again?
20%0–6 months
What if the US imposes full secondary sanctions on Venezuelan crude?
20%6–18 months
What if Venezuela migration wave strains Colombia and Peru fiscally?
20%1–3 years
What if Venezuela normalization and return relieve regional strain (good)?
19%6–18 months
What if Venezuela sanctions snapback strips 0.8 mb/d of heavy crude?
15%6–18 months
What if Colombia-Venezuela border flares with armed groups?
15%1–3 years
What if Essequibo annexation push escalates with Guyana?
15%0–6 months
What if Venezuela sanctions relief sticks, Chevron crude returns?
15%6–18 months
What if Venezuela strikes Stabroek, hitting ExxonMobil oil?
14%6–18 months
What if Venezuela oil sabotage spikes amid power struggle?
13%1–3 years
What if post-Maduro Venezuela splinters into an oil war?
11%1–3 years
What if a surge of sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian barrels floods an oversupplied oil market?
11%1–3 years
What if re-imposed US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tighten the heavy-sour crude market?
11%6–18 months
What if Venezuelan heavy crude exports collapse back toward 2020 lows?
9%6–18 months
What if Venezuela invades Guyana to seize its oil?
8%6–18 months
What if loss of medium-sour barrels from Iran and Russia leaves refiners short of the grades they need?
6%1–3 years
What if a Latin American resource dispute disrupts commodity supply?