What if loss of medium-sour barrels from Iran and Russia leaves refiners short of the grades they need?
Loss of medium-sour barrels (Iran/Russia/Venezuela) against a glut of light-sweet shale leaves refiners short of the grades they're configured for, widening quality differentials.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Loss of medium-sour barrels (Iran/Russia/Venezuela) against a glut of light-sweet shale leaves refiners short of the grades they're configured for, widening quality differentials. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.67–+1.96% · other way -1.15% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.5% hist -0.6–+1.99% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.06–+2.27% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.68–+5.81% · other way +5.49% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.39–+2.76% · other way -2.14% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.2–+2.13% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.26–+2.51% · other way +5.38% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.51–-0.15% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -4.02–+20.69% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -3.33–+20.18% · other way +6.4% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.36–-0.08% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.68–+0.05% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.86–+3.73% · other way +16.28% (n=12) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.03–+0.49% · other way +0.65% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.5% | 75% | 31 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +9bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +3.6% | 65% | 32 | 0.25 | · |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.0% | 63% | 31 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 31 | 0.22 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -6.7% ↺ fades | 62% | 26 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -6.9% | 61% | 10 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |