What if Venezuela invades Guyana to seize its oil?
Smallest geo-shock here: Essequibo's ~0.9m bbl/d of new ExxonMobil output is at risk, so Brent bids only ~2% and equity beta barely flinches (VIX +8). Rhyme is the Dec-2023 Venezuela-Guyana referendum scare, which moved oil a token amount before fizzling on diplomacy. Transmission: Guyana's crude flows mainly to Europe/Asia and Exxon operates it, so a real seizure is a US-corporate and supply story, not a price-regime shift — fade the oil pop unless production is physically halted, which an invasion of dense jungle terrain makes hard.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Venezuela invades Guyana to seize the oil-rich Essequibo region. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.