What if Venezuela's inflation re-accelerates and forces another redenomination?
Monetizing the oil shortfall with 50%+ monthly inflation is a bolivar-collapse story, near-irrelevant to global crude given Venezuela's collapsed export volumes; short any bolivar exposure, watch PDVSA/Citgo recovery paper. The rhyme is Venezuela's own 2017-19 hyperinflation and serial redenominations. The cascade is mis-built — it prices Brent +2.4%/WTI +2% as if a Strait-of-Hormuz war premium applied, but a domestic-monetization shock in a sanctioned, low-output producer doesn't move the global oil curve. oil_supply_risk is the wrong root.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Caracas monetizes the oil shortfall and monthly inflation tops 50%, forcing a fresh bolivar redenomination by year-end. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · EM currencies ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.