Instrument

Scenario Engine

Name a shock — a Hormuz closure, a 100bp cut, a regional-bank failure — and the engine prices it across the whole book: direction and magnitude for rates, equities, credit, FX, commodities, and crypto, opposing regimes kept on separate books. Not a headline. A positioning map for the world the market hasn’t priced yet.

Scenario engine · compiling 6 asset classes
One shock · six signed verdicts
Strait of Hormuz closes → oil to $200
root · p = 6.5% [0–14] · 6-month window
Cross-asset cascade · signed & sized
VIXvolatility+11.5%
NASDAQ-100equity−6.1%
Brentenergy+5.7%
Goldmetals+2.3%
KRWFX−1.9%
HY OAScredit+48bp
both tails priced · a supply shock and a glut are different worlds — never a blurred average

Signed and sized, never directional.

Every asset carries a direction and a magnitude. A supply shock and a glut are never averaged into a number that means nothing — they’re the two sides of the trade, priced apart.

The whole cascade, pruned to what moves.

One shock traced end to end across your book, the second-order noise cut away. What moves, which way, how much — the map, not the narration.

Both tails, priced.

The good tail — a capability jump, supply returning, a peace — is priced beside the bad. A risk engine blind to the upside is half an engine.

This runs live on the desk. The receipts are public — read the record before you take a seat. A seat runs this instrument on your own book, with alerts the moment the gap opens.
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